Wednesday, July 9, 2008

"This summer is the coldest summer in Taiwan"

I guess it was actually the Minister of Economic Affairs that made the comment about the TAIEX reaching 20,000 as a result of implementing Ma's economic policies. Regardless, for anyone to make that kind of prediction in a terribly bear market, is quite arrogant as the article states.

Things are looking extremely oversold right now, and while I have protected all my positions on the downside with covered calls and puts for insurance against further falls, a lot of murmurs about a short term bounce/rally have been circulating the internet lately. While it's certainly possible and I would much rather see a short term rally than this continual downward spiral, I can't help but think that when everyone thinks the short term bottom is in, that it actually isn't. If everyone is predicting the bottom is in, then everyone will be making money in the next week or two- but we all know not everyone can make money. We shall see, if I wasn't already long on some stocks, I'd much rather be sitting out this very volatile market for the time being.

Here's EWT's chart for the past 6 months. It looks like it could set up for a triple bottom, and that would fall in place with the short term rally people have been calling for. If we do indeed get that rally, I will try to exit the position at the 50/200DMA, both of which are at around $15.50. I entered EWT before Ma's inaguration and was hoping for his "honeymoon" period to carryover into EWT for at least a week before exiting. Now that people have realized how over-hyped Ma's impact would be on the economy would be, I am not hopeful on EWT going long.

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