Friday, July 24, 2009

The First Obama-move I Finally Am Impressed With

This is semi-old news I believe, but Utah Governor, Jon Huntsman has been selected by Obama to be their China ambassador. I guess the newer news is that previously news had not revealed that he was a Taiwanese (Hoklo) speaker- at least I did not catch that the first time. A previous Mormon missionary to Taiwan, Taiwanese (Hoklo) speaker, Mandarin speaker, and is noted in article as being "personally invested in the fate of Taiwan."

The governor, who lived in Taiwan as a Mormon missionary, said he felt “personally invested in the peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences, in a way that respects the wishes of the people on both Taiwan and the mainland.”

He said that current US policy “supports this objective, and I have been encouraged by the recent relaxing of cross-strait tensions.”

The governor received warm praise from senators of both parties, and the committee was expected to refer his nomination to the full Senate quickly for confirmation before lawmakers leave for a month-long recess on Aug. 7.
While he sort of follows the line of improved cross-strait relations, he doesn't quite use improved, but uses relaxed- which I could say is more on par with reality. A positive out of this appointment is the cross-party support Huntsman will likely receive in his confirmation- making the point to Beijing that this is not a Republican, nor a Democrat thing.

As always, talk is cheap. But we can be hopeful. Hopefully he does not become another Jimmy Carter.

On a sidenote, Huntsman was mentioned as a possible 2012 presidential candidate for the Republicans. Chatter and rumors say this could be a move by Obama to ship him to China to lessen his probability on being a runner in 2012.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Sorrow of Listening to Communists

An interesting editorial today in the China Post, titled "Sorry of being Taiwanese." As with many editorials in the China Post, this one is again signed off by a vague, "The China Post news staff." At least can we get a name behind who these opinions are? Or are they indeed the opinion of The China Post (wouldn't be a surprise).

This editorial piece is all over the place, and I really don't know how to respond. It just seemed like some typical things some Communist Chinese would say. The main point of this piece is to bring to question why Taiwanese view China as the most unfriendliest country towards China, and attemps to make Japan the bully.

Leaving aside these Han Chinese settlers' own colonialist oppression against Taiwan's Aborigines, the real “Native Taiwanese,” the fact remains that Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, French and Japanese colonialists did indeed oppress Han Chinese on Taiwan.

But have Lee and other champions of Taiwan's independence ever directed their justifiable resentment of colonialist oppression against Taiwan's Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, French and Japanese colonizers?

No, they have not.

Instead, in defiance of all reason, they have redirected all their pent-up frustrations against other Han Chinese who arrived on Taiwan after 1945, and against other Han Chinese who have never even been to Taiwan, but who live on the Chinese mainland.

While I am not knowledgable enough to comment on what types of oppression was committed on the people living on Formosa by the Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, etc... I have enough common sense to know why Taiwanese (including not just those who "champion Taiwan's independence") resent the oppression of China and not Japan and those others- how about just the fact that China is the current one that is oppresing Taiwan. Regardless of the past (although the past is important sometimes), the current situation is that the Portuguese, Dutch, etc. have hardly any involvement in the Taiwan Straits, and Japan is clearly (at least should be clear) an ally of Taiwan, and the oppresor is China.

It's pretty obvious this article is written by a "Han Chinese" living in Taiwan after 1945, or by actual Communists living in China. The great emphasis on "Han Chinese" and the distinct comparison of Taiwan-Chinese mainland instead of Taiwan-China, is enough for me to know where this article's bias is headed.

The counter-point by the writer to my point that the current aggressor is China, not Japan?

Dismiss the 50,000 to 100,000 Taiwanese murdered by the Japanese between 1895 and 1945 as “ancient history,” as “bygones.” What about the aggression being committed by Japan against Taiwanese this very minute?

The young people polled apparently have no idea that Japan has annexed the Taiwanese island of Diaoyutai, and expanded its Exclusive Economic Zone to include waters a mere 37 km off the coast of Ilan and Hualien counties. Japanese Coast Guard vessels have intercepted Taiwanese fishing vessels found in “Japanese waters.” Japanese Coast Guard personnel have arrested Taiwanese fishermen, forced them to kneel before their captors, slapped them in the face, spit on them, and screamed racial epithets in their ears.

Ignoring whatever "Japan has annexed the Taiwanese island of Diaoyutai" means, the article also fails to point out that the PRC also lays claim to the islands. Furthermore, for most Taiwanese, these islands may not mean much to them. Japanese threat of fishermens at distant island that they in their whole life will most likely never go to, versus, PRC threat to Taiwan via 1,500+ missiles. Tell me, which would you call more unfriendly?

Nothing is wrong with Taiwanese, i.e., Chinese people on Taiwan, wanting to stand tall, walk out into the world, and enjoy respect. This is a perfectly laudable, completely understandable, and highly desirable goal.

Yes, thank you for defining what Taiwanese are- Chinese people on Taiwan. Why don't we go ahead and insist that Americans are British people on America as well. That way, we can start clearing things up.

But respect entails self-respect. Before others will respect you, one must first respect oneself. Self-respect in turn entails self-affirmation. If one respects oneself, one will have no hesitation affirming who one is.

A reluctance to affirm who one is, a determination to pretend one is something one is not, is symptomatic of a deep-seated lack of self-respect. If one is reluctant to affirm who one is, if one is determined to pretend one is something one is not, one has already invalidated oneself at one's very core. Nothing one can do subsequently will ever make up for this initial act of self-invalidation.

Apparently many young Taiwanese have no self-respect for themselves. At least, speaking for myself, I do. I respect myself, and I can affirm who I am- a Taiwanese-American. My parents, can also affirm that they are Taiwanese (but not the definition the article uses), with self-respect as well.

The reluctance of champions of Taiwan independence to affirm that they are Chinese, their stubborn insistence that they are “Taiwanese, not Chinese,” rather than “Taiwanese and Chinese,” their pathetic attempts to ingratiate themselves with their Japanese victimizers, are all symptoms of a profound lack of self-respect. Champions of Taiwan independence who refuse to affirm who they are, who insist on pretending they are something they are not, have already invalidated themselves at their very core. Nothing they can do subsequently will ever make up for this initial act of self-invalidation.

Are you serious? The whole point of Taiwanese declaring that we are Taiwanese, not Chinese is in itself an act of affirmation of who we are. Rather than self-invalidating who we are, we are validating and declaring to the world who we are. Is it necessarily that we hate Chinese? No. It is my belief that the "Taiwanese" movement is that we want the right to declare to the world who we are, and not have someone else tell us who we are. That is the biggest problem with people from China these days, they always have to tell me that I am Chinese as if they are the ones that are in a place to say so. So why can't Taiwanese and Chinese co-exist? As long as we can both have respect, and self-respect for each other, then all should be well. But, instead we have Chinese insisting that Taiwanese are Chinese, and apparently the person who wrote this editorial also insists that Taiwanese are Chinese.

Dear China Post news staff, I apologize for my pathetic attempt to side with Japan instead of China. Because, we all know that China is all about self-respect, as long as you are Han Chinese. But if you are the "Chinese living on Taiwan" type that does not want to unify with China, then we are dogs and we can eat shit and die. Yeah, I know the drill- and don't try and deny it.

An interesting find while I was looking up some info on the Diaoyutai islands-- I came across this website, which pretty much has the same wording as this editorial:

The reluctance of Pan Green Quislings to affirm that they are Chinese, their stubborn insistence that they are "Taiwanese, not Chinese," their pathetic attempts to spin themselves as "quasi-Japanese," are all symptoms of the Pan Green Quislings' profound lack of self-respect. Pan Green Quislings who refuse to affirm who they are, who insist on pretending they are something they are not, have already invalidated themselves at their very core. Nothing they can do subsequently will ever make up for this initial act of self-invalidation.

So I am going to go out on a limb and say either the person who wrote this editorial plagerized, or is the person behind this website (and blog since the website is no longer active).

The ediotorial ends:

This is the real meaning of the “sorrow of being born Taiwanese.”
I'd say this editorial is the real meaning of the "sorrow of listening to Communists."

EWT Short By TK

Fellow blogger on the markets, Tim Knight, over at the Slope of Hope , has shorted EWT, highlighting the similar resistance level I mentioned in my previous post. I have not entered more short positions in EWT, as this bulltardness going on in the markets is just ridiculous. I've personally stepped in front of this bulltrain many times over the past weeks, and I've gotten run over, over and over.

So, I may change my timeframe on this EWT short to a shorter timeframe, where upon a retrace downwards, will induce a new leg up in EWT.

Price level remains the same to watch for: $11.50-11.59. If this level is breached on strong volume and follow through, we may see more highs in store for Taiwan.

In other news, I'm fully short GS and AAPL as of today (another of my attempts to run in front of a bull-train).

Saturday, July 18, 2009

EWT - Upward Channel

Okay, back in the US now (I'll miss you Taiwan!)...

A quick update on EWT:

On the 60m chart, we've established a new upward channel on EWT. If we break above the $11.05 78.6% retracement level off the June 1st highs, we may have to reconsider my previous assumption that EWT is resuming the downward trend on the larger picture (in this bear market). A break above $11.47 (previous highs) would be really bullish, and that will definitely make me bail on my Sept 10 Puts. Those puts are already trading at only $0.25, my cost at $0.79- taking a large drawndown right now. I'm very tempted to exit for a loss if we get above $11.05, and re-entering upon better probabilities that lower prices are in-store for EWT.

Edit: Taking a step back and looking at the daily chart on the 2 year time frame, I had previously drawn the retracement levels from the highs and lows on the 2 year chart. The $11.05 is now more important than I thought. Look below:

We have a short ambush (50% retrace) on this time-frame. As we know, the larger the time frame, the more important the levels and moves become. I may consider entering EWT puts on my secondary account at this juncture. The reward/risk here is decent. Enter short with stop, say above $11.10. A better entry with excellent risk/reward is wait for low $11s and short, with stop above the previous interm high at $11.59. Will update as always if I take the trade.