Friday, October 31, 2008

Preparing For Obama & My Rant

We're finally near the end with just three days until the elections. I'm pretty much sick of all this presidential stuff as I bet a lot of you are. Every day, every night, news on Obama and McCain, their ads taking up all the commercial times repeating the same lies one after the other. Anyways, if you couldn't tell from the title, that's a yes- I've written off McCain, and that was quite some time ago. It's just impossible to win an election when your likely to have the largest turnout in recent history, especially among young voters. And where that block of young voters stand is clearly in favor of Obama.

It is not so much the fact that young people are coming out in flocks to vote for Obama, but the fact that many of the young people voting for Obama don't have the slightest clue of what Obama will do, besides "change" in the vaguest terms. Anyways, I'm not here to further make points for/against McCain/Obama because I'm tired of preaching (I shouldn't say preaching should I?) to the choir, and if not to the choir, having it fall on deaf ears.

In this generation where Republicans are the worst thing ever, and voting liberal/Democrat is the right thing to do and will let you 'fit in,' I just hope we are all ready for what's coming in the next few years.

Socialism. As if it's a bad word, right? Obama denies it, the democrats deny it, most supporters of Obama deny it. And it's not so much an insult to call someone a socialist, because afterall, it's just the name of a set of economic theories. Just as you can call Republicans capitalist-leaning, you can call Democrats socialist-leaning.

So, to my predictions. I'm thinking we trend sideways Monday and Tuesday with a lot of volatility. With Obama winning Tuesday night, I would have said we'd see a big fall the next day, but I'm thinking we're going to get a head-fake upwards. So, Wednesday we get a bull trap and it fades possibly even by the same day, then head down for the rest of the week. It's inevitable to have the markets go down when you are bringing in a president threatening to raise capital gains taxes to anywhere from 25% to almost double what it is now. Again, I believe we will see new lows on the indices before the year is over. The target many people and I have is that 7500 DJIA, 800 SPX support.

I've started to research Elliot Waves, and it's quite intriguing. From my novice experience in charting Elliot Waves, it's likely (according to the Elliot Wave Theory, and if I'm applying it correctly) we will get two waves up now (for the 4th and 5th leg) before resuming the overall down trend.

So in the short term, we may actually get some strength, but that strength should only be used to short-term trade long, and really used to exit long positions and go short.

Anyways, other than the markets... good news I suppose for the troops, because they'll be back in 16 months. Right? We shall see. Also, all of us should be able to "feel better" about ourselves since we will now be footing even more of a bill for welfare, aka, "spreading the wealth." Yes sir, glad to be helping the poor in this country. What the majority of Americans are saying is that we all need to be concerned about equality, everything else such as the economy doesn't really matter, as long as no one is getting ahead of the other... it's all about leveling the playing field!

Now I'm going to sound like a selfish prick now, but it's truly what I feel. Now that we'll be punished (taxed more) for getting ahead, there's really no reason to get ahead. So much for being an engineer. Scientists, doctors, engineers, research, these are all the driving force behind a growing economy. And to inadvertently discourage that through taxes is just sad. Sorry if you're one of these majors, but seriously, I might as well have majored in religion or art history or any of the other 10 majors listed in that article where I could have had partied my way through college and still came out with the grade I have now, rather than slaving my days away in the labs each and every week. [Please don't get offended by that "Top 10 Worst Majors" article, it was merely used to make a point, although I'm not going to lie, some of those majors are pretty... well, let's just leave it at that.]

Lastly, I'd just like to remark that those who think trickle-down economics is ridiculous, and that it's just the Wall Street Crooks and Corporations that are getting rich, and no one below them. You're wrong. Just look at all your Finance friends that ended up with no internship last summer, or who have no idea where they are going to work now. When the company dries up, so do we. And it's not just finance majors, I have many engineer friends who are having a hard time finding jobs right now. Why? Because the companies that are supposed to trickle-down that money to us via hiring us are no longer hiring. When the companies do bad, they stop hiring. It's a simple fact. And as a graduate this year, I'm going to have to fight to find a job. Thanks guys, I guess I have no choice but to trust what you guys are voting for, really. Let's all band together and miraculously "trickle-up" that money starting from the poorest of poor receiving welfare.

United States of America : No longer a place where the government gives you a hand-up, instead, a hand-out!

Saturday, October 25, 2008

ABT in Taiwan Speaks Up

Recently an American born Taiwanese by the name of Eric has made national news in Taiwan. Naturally he speaks English very well, and surprisingly, his Taiwanese is also very good. I urge everyone to watch the following interview with Eric, after he spoke out against Zhang Mingqing (an ARATS official from China).

At the university:

It's now or never. Taiwan will be decided by our generation.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

DaHwa News (大話新聞) Host, Cheng Hong-Yi Coming to Seattle

Found out from my dad this weekend that the "all-star" of political talk shows in Taiwan (at least for the Green side), is coming to Seattle to help raise money for FAPA. Check out the flier in Mandarin here. According to the FAPA September newsletter, these are also his other tour stops:

October 31: New York City
November 1: Washington, DC
November 2: Houston
November 3: Seattle
November 5: Los Angeles

Although it says to go to for more details, I can't seem to find more details. If you find those, "more details," feel free to let me know!

In any case, word from my dad says that he will be speaking in Seattle at the University of Washington campus on the 3rd of November. I believe the time was 6 or 7PM, and the location is in Kane Hall. I'll update this if/when I get confirmed time. I assume he'll be covering just the general happenings in Taiwan right now, and probably take some Q&A. But, I'm just speculating. Edit: Looks like there may be a dinner involved as well, so the location may actually be in Bellevue, will update if I find the right information!

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Ma's Peace Agreement

As if Ma was reading the minds of all those who are cautious of him, Ma hopes to achieve a peace agreement with China sometime in the future, and does not rule out doing so during his term in office. If you've been following my comments and posts, you've probably seen me comment a few times about how there might not be a 2012 election- well, a peace agreement is certainly one of those things to be on the watch for that may affect the 2012 elections.

Can anyone name anything good that Taiwan has received in return for Ma's agreements in his 5 months in office? Let's see:

Cross-strait flights have been dismal, and Taiwan airlines were notably left out of some of the new cross-strait flights in the agreements. Cargo flights, which would have benefited Taiwan's air-cargo industry greatly, were also left out of those agreements.

Ma praises the agreement with China to use Zhonghua Taipei, even though there was already an agreement in the past that requires them to do so. What does Taiwan get? Slip-ups in China less than a week after, referring to Taiwan as Zhongguoa Taipei, as well as being placed near the "C" category in the Olympic line.

I think it's safe to say, that any sort of agreement with China on such a thing as a peace agreement, would be devastating to the safety and sovereignty of Taiwan. I surmise that a peace agreement would be only putting into paper what China has already stated, that China will not attack with their horde of missiles as long as Taiwan does not formally declare independence. But knowing how China works in its wile ways, something along the lines of reducing the number of missiles aimed at Taiwan will be done in exchange for a a formal declaration by Taiwan that they will never declare independence, thus forever ruining Taiwan's autonomous future.

Taiwan is currently in a box, with two doors. One goes to China, the other goes to a free and democratic Taiwan. An agreement with China would most certainly close and lock that door of a free and democratic Taiwan. Thus, the only way out for Taiwan in this box is the go to China. Taiwan cannot remain in this box forever, in this de-facto, in-limbo, autonomous-state. Why? If you were stuck in a box, eventually you will suffocate to death, or starve to death. You need a way out. Just like as if you were in that box, China will slowly suffocate Taiwan's international space until Taiwan has no other option than to go through that one door that is Taiwan's only option at that point.

Case in point: This article in today's TaipeiTimes points out Bush's most recent move to continue to distance the U.S. from Taiwan, even though the unofficial, official, comments by the U.S. in regards to Taiwan has always been that is one of U.S. greatest democratic ally in the Asia-Pacific region. Bush has left-out Taiwan in the "visa-free" countries list, that Taiwan was likely qualified for. Although I can think of one (or some) incidents where a "Taiwanese" was in the U.S. spying for China. But the likely reality is that these "Taiwanese" that are spying for China are actually Chinese living in Taiwan, that moved to the U.S. Anyways, regardless, it is clear that China is suffocating Taiwan in this respect.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

China to McCain and Obama - "Watch Yo' Self!"

As ridiculous as it sounds, China has not only warned the United States of it's "wrong-doing" in approving half of the original $12 billion arms package to Taiwan, but also proceeded to turn the tables on the two presidential candidates (another article here), Barack Obama and John McCain. Both Obama and McCain had good things to say about the package finally being approved, with McCain taking it a step further and calling for the U.S. to also approved the F-16s that were not included in this arms deal.

Really? I mean seriously. We are now taking threats/orders/warnings from China?

"We expect U.S. presidential candidates can realize this and stick to the one-China policy, observe the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques, oppose 'Taiwan independence' and advance bilateral ties,"

How about expecting the U.S. to also stick to the Taiwan Relations Act as well as the Six Assurances, from which the U.S. promises to continually provide Taiwan with arms sales in order to allow Taiwan to defend itself, without consultation with the third party, China. And yet, by allowing China to call on the two presidential candidates to stop with the arms sales and proceeded not to respond harshly against China's threat, they are in affect bringing China to this "bargaining table."

Can we get a president who has the balls to tell China no? The biggest threat of this century will be how the U.S. deals with the growing threat of a "soft" China. We cannot standby and wait for them to evolve "softly" into a "soft superpower" without checks. When China gets to where it wants to be, there will be not "softness" in their projection of power across the world. China rules with an iron fist, and does what needs to be done to drive its propaganda machine across the globe. That is why, no matter how optimistic the world and Ma's administration may be, expecting China to "see the light" in Taiwan's democracy and hope for them to become democratic is a lost cause. This is easily apparent in a lot of Chinese-Americans.

There are basically two types of Chinese-Americans in the U.S. (besides the apathetic, don't care ones). One type are the ones that, even though living in the U.S., for whatever reason (parents, extensive upbringing in China), they continue to spew the propaganda that the Communists crank out in Beijing. They cannot think for themselves. Even when they read/see/hear something opposite of what the propaganda machine says, they ignore it or deem it a lie. There is absolutely no doubt in their mind that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and there is absolutely no doubt that Taiwan is, and will always be a part of China. Even though they've experienced things like free speech, unfiltered internet, education that says otherwise to the Communists propaganda, they still eat up the propaganda that China throws at them.

So where does these optimism for change in China come from? Is it wrong to be optimistic about things like this? No, absolutely not. But perhaps it can be dangerous to be so optimistic, that we lack realistic expectations. When China says things like, "will prevent Taiwan from officially declaring independence, by force if necessary," and, "is of grave concern to China," when describing the arms deal by U.S. to Taiwan, and finally things such as this:

"[China aims] to subject the United States to coercive nuclear threats to limit potential U.S. intervention in a regional conflict"

Then, it should be clear where China stands. So lets be realistic, no, Chinese are not going to come to Taiwan, see how wonderful democracy is, then attempt to gather the people in a revolution to end communism in China. Sorry folks, the TAIEX has a better chance to hit 20,000 before China becomes a democratic nation.

EDIT: Again, just letting you guys know to check out the "Evri" button below. It's pretty cool, see my previous "Edit" in my previous blog entry for more info.

Friday, October 10, 2008


Today is the "National Day" for Taiwan (or yesterday in Taiwan), or should I say Republic of China. It's actually quite a sad day for a supposed national celebration of Taiwan, because of the fact that President Ma has completely reverted things back to One China, different interpretations. Whereas in the past 8 years, Taiwan had made great progress in distinguishing Taiwan as a separate country from China, and that "One China" was really only, China.

If you did not know, which I would assume you don't unless you scour the web for articles on Taiwan everyday, Ma made the claim that China is a part of the Republic of China. Sure, the constitution may still say that, but everyone knows the constitution is outdated and needs to be redone. So much for the "mutual expectations" that he referred to in his national speech on 10/10.

"The people's mutual expectations are 'no reunification, no independence and no use of force' between the two sides. But we will not have wishful thinking, we will firmly uphold Taiwan's dignity and Taiwanese people's welfare," he said.

How can the people expect him to follow through with 'no reunification' if:
1) His party (KMT) is clear on the fact that the eventual goal of Taiwan is to be united with China.
2) He has continually downgraded the importance of Taiwan's sovereignty through his actions and words (remember his inaugural speech?)
3) He has the guts to still state that China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC) are one country, and even further, that China is a part of the Republic of China (Taiwan). (Sorry for all these parenthesis with ROC, PRC, Taiwan, etc. but it's needed now that Ma has reverted back to these terms that are confusing as hell)

This is no longer about the internal bickering within the country, DPP, KMT, whatever. If you are Taiwanese, if you are from Taiwan, if you live in Taiwan, you need to know that the path that Ma and his cronies are taking Taiwan is one slippery slope. That slippery slope that once Taiwan has fallen on, will likely never be able to recover from again. Ma's administration is quickly turning everything Taiwan, into China this-and-that. At the same time, their administration is moving towards censoring the media- one of the finest points about Taiwan's democracy, which has consisntely been rated #1 in terms of its freedom of speech and media. If you aren't alarmed about this, you should be. One of the best ways to control the people is through media. Feed them what makes you look good, and block all that criticize you. It's what China does, and it's what the KMT is trying to start to do.

Wake up people.

EDIT: By the way, check out the "Evri" button right below! It's a new company that's about content discovery. It's a local company as well, so support them by adding them to your blogs. Basically it tries to analyze the text from my blog post and then when you click on it, it comes up with potential articles on the internet that may be related/of interest to you. More info can be found at their website, here.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Vote These Communist Bandits Out This November

Find your representative here. If your representative voted for this bailout, it is your duty to remove them from office this November. Regardless of party and affiliation, they must go. All polls prior to these votes as well as even after point to a majority of Americans who are against this bailout. We voted these representatives into office to represent us. How can this supposed "bailout, save the economy, save the world," legislation fly through the senate and pass the House when the majority of us are against it?

So do the right thing, vote them out of office. For those in WA, these are your "Patriotic" (Communist) bandits that have chosen to take your taxpayer money and send it to foreign countries around the world, including China.

Adam Smith - Dist. 9
Rick Larsen - Dist. 2
Norm Dicks - Dist. 6
Brian Baird - Dist. 3

Not proud of my district, where Adam Smith decided to AYE for this bill. But I am surprised/pleased to see that WA state actually went from a 5-4 (out of the 9 representatives for WA) FOR the original bill on Monday, to a 5-4 AGAINST the revised bill today.

Moving onto the markets... So much for the bill that needed to be passed in order to bring "stability" to the markets. If by stability they meant more selling, well that was a given for anyone who had an ounce of brain left, which none of the four above do. If you've had any sort of conversation with me about the market, and/or, read any of my previous posts, you know where to be:

1) Short
2) Cash
3) Fetal position

From Yahoo! Finance:

The turnabout came after Congress approved an amended version of a $700 billion plan to purchase distressed assets from financial companies. A knee-jerk reaction by traders sent stocks down sharply as they sold the news of the plan's approval.

Notice the immediate impact of the bill passing, a long red candle, the shorts' best friend. Furthermore, it is down AH, as well as the Futures being down. Monday? Doesn't look too happy for bulls.

Anyways, if you were too lazy to call, fax, e-mail, write, talk to your senators and representatives, fine. But you can make up for it by voting the above "AYE"-ers, that said AYE to socialism, out of office.