Saturday, October 18, 2008

Ma's Peace Agreement

As if Ma was reading the minds of all those who are cautious of him, Ma hopes to achieve a peace agreement with China sometime in the future, and does not rule out doing so during his term in office. If you've been following my comments and posts, you've probably seen me comment a few times about how there might not be a 2012 election- well, a peace agreement is certainly one of those things to be on the watch for that may affect the 2012 elections.

Can anyone name anything good that Taiwan has received in return for Ma's agreements in his 5 months in office? Let's see:

Cross-strait flights have been dismal, and Taiwan airlines were notably left out of some of the new cross-strait flights in the agreements. Cargo flights, which would have benefited Taiwan's air-cargo industry greatly, were also left out of those agreements.

Ma praises the agreement with China to use Zhonghua Taipei, even though there was already an agreement in the past that requires them to do so. What does Taiwan get? Slip-ups in China less than a week after, referring to Taiwan as Zhongguoa Taipei, as well as being placed near the "C" category in the Olympic line.

I think it's safe to say, that any sort of agreement with China on such a thing as a peace agreement, would be devastating to the safety and sovereignty of Taiwan. I surmise that a peace agreement would be only putting into paper what China has already stated, that China will not attack with their horde of missiles as long as Taiwan does not formally declare independence. But knowing how China works in its wile ways, something along the lines of reducing the number of missiles aimed at Taiwan will be done in exchange for a a formal declaration by Taiwan that they will never declare independence, thus forever ruining Taiwan's autonomous future.

Taiwan is currently in a box, with two doors. One goes to China, the other goes to a free and democratic Taiwan. An agreement with China would most certainly close and lock that door of a free and democratic Taiwan. Thus, the only way out for Taiwan in this box is the go to China. Taiwan cannot remain in this box forever, in this de-facto, in-limbo, autonomous-state. Why? If you were stuck in a box, eventually you will suffocate to death, or starve to death. You need a way out. Just like as if you were in that box, China will slowly suffocate Taiwan's international space until Taiwan has no other option than to go through that one door that is Taiwan's only option at that point.

Case in point: This article in today's TaipeiTimes points out Bush's most recent move to continue to distance the U.S. from Taiwan, even though the unofficial, official, comments by the U.S. in regards to Taiwan has always been that is one of U.S. greatest democratic ally in the Asia-Pacific region. Bush has left-out Taiwan in the "visa-free" countries list, that Taiwan was likely qualified for. Although I can think of one (or some) incidents where a "Taiwanese" was in the U.S. spying for China. But the likely reality is that these "Taiwanese" that are spying for China are actually Chinese living in Taiwan, that moved to the U.S. Anyways, regardless, it is clear that China is suffocating Taiwan in this respect.


Michael said...

Man, Bush doing a lot of not-so-pro things now that he's on his way out.

Dixteel said...

Nicely written. You voiced out a lot of concern a lot of people have I think.

In regard to recent US policy though, have to think in the US term also. Give Taiwan visa-free means creating another hole for Chinese spies in the US view.

Yes, most people in Taiwan dislike China and consider themselves Taiwanese. But like you said, a lot of people in Taiwan are actually de facto Chinese because they think like Chinese and care about China. ( and are even more patriotic toward China than other Chinese I might add). It's not necessary the US want to distance itself from Taiwan but more likely I think they don't want to create a hole in their security system. It's the same with military sell etc.

So long as there are substantial pro China elements in Taiwan, the US cannot fully trust Taiwan, unfortunately.