Wednesday, May 26, 2010

TAIEX Outlook - Week of May 23rd

Not to say I'm good at this stuff or whatever (because I'm not), but it just shows that "fundamentals" and "news" does not really matter when trading stocks. I simply look at a chart, see support and resistance levels, trend lines, volume, and Fibonacci numbers.

What did I say back on the May 9th update when the TAIEX was hanging right at the 200DMA @ 7600 and change?
From here, I'm looking for some consolidation (sideways movement) before a lower high before moving lower once again. Again, looking at the Shanghai Composite Index, as long as it continues to slide, so goes the the TAIEX and likely the U.S. markets.
Well what do you know, it was as if the markets were listening to me. While I wasn't completely spot-on (the day after I posted that, the TAIEX dropped below the 200DMA before assuming the sideways consolidation). What did proceed after that was the lower high as well as the moving lower once again. Here's a snapshot of the market of where it stands now:

As you can see, the lower high was made at 7782.32, followed by lower lows. So that's that. Did I know about any earnings that may have "caused" Taiwanese stocks to go down or other "news" that experts claim have caused the markets to go lower? Not in the slightest.

So where to now? As I've mentioned before, I look at the Shanghai Composite Index for indications of where the TAIEX may be headed.

Looking at the $SSEC that has already begun a bounce off the lows, it would make sense that the TAIEX follow similarly. Targets for a bounce are a 50% retracement from recent highs to lows at around 7400, which also coincides with a gap fill. Above that, the 200DMA could be within reach at the 7600 price level.

Keep in mind that all markets have been under heavy selling pressure over the last month, and that it pays to be cautious being long. I firmly believe we will still see lower prices across world markets later this year. As a result, I am cautiously long SPY calls as of this moment and looking for an exit around SPX 1106-1117.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Snapshot of Taiwan News

Have been a bit busier than usual lately (odd since I'm unemployed), but anyways, I digress. Feel like I need to update with some quickies on what's going on in Taiwan. Although, I feel like not much of anything is going on as everyone is pretty much waiting upon actual ECFA news or the year-end municipalities elections.

News stories:
  • Continued support from U.S. congressman for F-16 sales to Taiwan. Making it even more urgent, the F-16 C/D line that are being requested by Taiwan is set to be phased out of production sometime in the next two years.
  • ECFA potentially affecting trade outside of the Taiwan Strait? Business opportunities between Taiwan and Argentina think this might be so. But of course, this is all just conjectures.
  • Lin Yu-Chun (小胖) is signed by Sony Music. Look for his first album to drop in July. I'm pretty sure my dad will be ordering that CD...
  • Foxconn of Taiwan is again tied into rumors of who/what/where/when/why the next Apple iPhone will be released.
  • A senior research fellow at the Taiwan Brain Trust in Taipei has a hard-hitting piece on Ma Ying-jeou and his first 2 years as president. Wonder why Ma never talks about his famous 6-3-3 promise anymore?
  • Excellent points brought up in this Taipei Times piece on why a peace accord between China and Taiwan is irrelevant. Basically he points out correctly that Taiwan does not equal the KMT/Republic of China. Any peace accord that may or may not happen should be negotiated between the CCP and the KMT, who happen to be residing on Taiwan.
As always, check out the Taiwan blog roll on the right side of the page; lots of great bloggers and a plethora of Taiwanese stuff!

Friday, May 7, 2010

TAIEX Outlook - Week of May 9th

My previous post indicated my belief that the TAIEX would soon be under more selling pressure. Why? The potential setup was the double top forming, as well as the Shanghai Index leading the way down. Furthermore, the past week or so has started to see some distribution in the U.S. markets. The result is a swift move back to the 200DMA for the TAIEX:

From here, I'm looking for some consolidation (sideways movement) before a lower high before moving lower once again. Again, looking at the Shanghai Composite Index, as long as it continues to slide, so goes the the TAIEX and likely the U.S. markets.

For the 6th of May, the U.S. markets got shaken up quite a bit, with the DJIA down over 1000 points at one point today. It was definitely one crazy market, and one that I even got burned in. If you need anymore reason to not be invested in the markets, today is the prime example. Whether you believe it was actually a trader error (which I don't really believe) or not, the fact is that there is no one really trading this market anymore. It's all machines and "high-frequency trading" that is going on. How can your money be safely invested in the markets when the potential for a 1000 point drop in less than 5 minutes can occur?

Anyways, here's a live clip of the crash occuring on CNBC, followed by this funny video of a guy going crazy during the crash (live as well):

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Formosa Betrayed Ending in Seattle; Shows in Taiwan in August

Got a press release from the Formosa Betrayed Facebook group a few days ago. Great news for those in Taiwan, it's headed your way in early August! They are also planning a DVD release for this summer (sort of odd that they might release a DVD before showing in Taiwan, but in the end I doubt it will impact the numbers in Taiwan that much).

Here's an excerpt from the Facebook "press release," on the Taiwan release:


Formosa Films and Screen Media Ventures are proud to announce an agreement with IPA Asia Pacific and Sky Digi Entertainment Co for theatrical distribution of Formosa Betrayed in TAIWAN!!!! Since before the film was completed, thousands of fans have been wondering when the film will be released in Taiwan. Now, we are excited to announce that the film is scheduled to be in Taiwanese theaters beginning the weekend of August 6, 2010.

Actor/writer/producer Will Tiao, director Adam Kane, and several of the actors from the film have been invited to promote the film in Taiwan prior to its release. Please find attached the official press release in Mandarin Chinese and English that has been released to media outlets in Taiwan, the United States, and worldwide. Any press inquiries regarding the Taiwan release of Formosa Betrayed should be directed in the United States to Michael Dwyer at Screen Media Ventures at (212) 308-1790 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting (212) 308-1790 end_of_the_skype_highlighting and in Taiwan to Tiffany Wang at Sky Digi Entertainment at 886-2-2231-1010.
Here's the rest of the press release, including information on how you can request to see Formosa Betrayed at a theater near you (if your city wasn't on the original release schedule).

Also, this is the last week for Formosa Betrayed in Seattle (showing only at the AMC Loews Uptown 3).

For those who have or have not seen it and would like a preview (minor spoilers, but not really) on what I thought of it, here's my review of Formosa Betrayed.