Tuesday, July 22, 2008

"633" Update

Ma Ying-Jeou, a step in the right direction!

- 6% GDP Growth Annually
- 3% Unemployment rate by 2012
- $30,000 Per Capita Income by 2012

Latest figures on unemployment rate in Taiwan indicate that it has risen to 3.95%. But he's only been in office for 2 or so months, so there's still another 3 years and 10 months to get it down to 3%. Also, don't forget that Goldman Sachs is forecasting GDP Growths for 08 and 09 below 6%, at 4.5% and 4.8% respectively. Things don't look to well for the "633" pledges. As far as Per Capita GDP, currently Taiwan is at or around $16,800. Nearly doubling by 2012 is going to be tough as well.


Taiwan Economics said...

Given the natural friction of changing jobs, it will be nearly impossible to get down to 3% without taking a hit in GDP growth. Actually something more important than official unemployment numbers (which are really good actually) is structural unemployment--people, often previously factory workers, unemployed for several years and are no longer actively looking for a job. That is a big problem in Taiwan, though with the savings rate and social networks here, it doesn't necessarily lead to poverty or immediately obvious economic hardship.

Richard said...

I'm not quite sure I follow you when you say in order to get down to 3% unemployment, that the GDP growth will have to take a hit (slow). Usually a rise in GDP growth results in a fall in the unemployment rate. I hear you on the structural unemployment though. Taiwan's labor/factory jobs have continually been shipped out to places like Vietnam, and so previous factory workers that lack skills to work in something other than labor are left out to dry.