Saturday, July 5, 2008

Ma Promised 20,000 TAIEX?

After just reading an editorial on Taipei Times here, the thing that stood out to me the most was that the writer mentioned that Ma promised after his March 22nd that the TAIEX would reach 20,000.

Wait, did he just say that the TAIEX would double after he becomes president? Although I haven't found any other links or news articles (if you find one, feel free to link it) mentioning it, I really would not be surprised that he made that kind of promise. Ma Ying-Jeou was just spouting off promises left and right as election came closer in order to secure the undecided votes in the middle (Similar to what Barack Obama is doing now in the U.S.). This should be a good wake-up call for everyone supporting Obama that he is not the "change" that he wants you to believe in. Anyways, back to the 20,000 TAIEX statement by Ma.

How realistic is that? Sure indices have been able to double within 4 years, but those occur during bull markets. Currently? The world is on the verge of a global meltdown. The U.S. has been teetering on an official recession for quite a while now. The rise of oil prices and the continual dependence on it has got to hit the world hard eventually. That time is coming, real soon.

So for Ma to make that kind of promise in a non-bull market, or could possibly even say in a bear market is for the pure appeasement of voters.

A majority of Taiwan voted Ma into power in order to boost Taiwan's economy (which wasn't all that bad). Let's not forget Ma's promises (mentioned in the editorial):

1. 6% GDP growth every year he is in office
2. Per capita GDP to $30,000
3. Reduce unemployment rates to 3%

That's one tall order, including this possible fourth of:

4. 20,000 TAIEX during his presidency

Anyone remember reading about GS revising their estimates for Taiwan's GDP? Here's a quick review taken from this article:
Goldman Sachs forecast Taiwan GDP growth to slow to 4.5 percent this year from 5.7 percent in 2007, but to rise to 4.8 percent next year "as the economic impact from the progress on cross-Strait policies comes to fruition".
Interesting how Taiwan's GDP was close to 6% during Chen's last term in office, and for this year with expected "new economic growth" from Chinese tourists, it was revised down to 4.5%. But wait, the best part is that GS expects cross-strait policies to help the GDP by 0.3% to 4.8%- still lower than pre-cross-strait policies.

You voted him into power for "economic growth," so don't let Ma and the largely KMT controlled media to make excuses for him now, or in four years, if he fails to meet those 4 promises when election time comes around. I'm deep green, but don't get me wrong- I'm reasonable. So in the same way, if he does meet those four promises, I will shut up about it and you can continue to support Ma and vote him in for another 4 years.

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