Saturday, August 30, 2008

Taking a Breather from Politics, Sort of

As I haven't posted much stock news lately as I barely have enough time to blog on politics, let alone do my own due diligence on stock picks, I've decided to tie both stocks with politics in this one.

Remember the 20,000 TAIEX "promise"-turned-"just kidding" by Ma's presidential campaign staff/advisors/whoever it was that said it? Taipei Time's article covering yesterday's rally against Ma's performance, or lack of performance in the first 100 days provided a few quotes by some Taiwanese who were rallying [Side note, here's great coverage on the event by Michael Turton, citing participants > 100,000 compared to the most of the media reporting only tens of thousands showing]. This quote I want to note:

“In his presidential campaign, he said he would boost the TAIEX to 20,000 points ... After I lost NT$2 million [US$63,000] on it, he said he was just kidding — but I blame myself too for believing him,” Chen said.

Although my loss is not nearly as much, I also took the same road by picking up the equivalent ETF that tracks the TAIEX, ticker EWT, a week or so before Ma's inaguration.

Entrance Strategy: Buy on speculation of a magical economic boom once Ma steps into office.
Exit Strategy: "Buy on rumor, sell on news"


Long green bar indicates entering long position. (May 8th)

Result: Bought on the 8th of May and was at a high of 17.50 on the 19th. Planned to sell on news the next day, but the day the "news" came out the TAIEX went opposite of what I planned and ended up moving down a lot. Being not so smart, I held, and held and held. To this day, I'm still down 20% on EWT, and may exit soon for a loss.

My thinking behind it was, well the DPP lost, and at the very least, why not profit off of Ma's populartiy and assumed economic boom that he promised. Let's ride this sucker for what it's worth. As an investor that has read numerous investing books of all ranges, I know that what I decide is ultimately my own doing. This is what investors like to call, doing your own DD (due diligence) on ultimately selecting a stock to invest in. What I didn't do this time was my own DD. I took the words of Ma Ying-Jeou and ate them up, even though I didn't believe his words during the election campaigning. How stupid and naive of me. In my attempt to be more pragmatic in response to Ma Ying-Jeou winning, you could say I was just trying to "give him a shot." My dad, who bleeds green, was quick to point out how I was wrong on that trade and told me to sell it off. No matter the reason I gave him, he simply responded "bo kou lin" [不可能] [impossible].

Believing Ma, Ying-Jeou this time was "simply" a financially costly mistake, but continuing to believe in his empty promises may prove to be a mistake that cannot be afforded and resolved by simplying working harder to earn back that lost money; it may be a mistake that we will not realized what we had until we will have lost it.

10 comments:

GFYOIFIM said...

Since Michael Turton is not man enough to publish my response to him that I took straight out of DPP’s own race/politics playbook, I will give it to you straight here.

"Clueless one, my wife and kids are Taiwanese."

Really? Your wife and kids are Taiwanese? According to DPP and Frank Hsieh's (謝長廷) "Love Taiwan" standard in March 08 election: anyone with relatives living overseas, a green card (whether valid or not) or an American passport are NOT Taiwanese. According to DPP, people like your wife and kids are ready to leave Taiwan anytiime, therefore do not qualify to "love" Taiwan. If someone like Ma who has lived in Taiwan for over 40 years is still called "not Taiwanese" and is constantly accused by DPP of "selling" out Taiwan, why should we trust YOU (an American), your wife (an American-to-be-at-any-time), and your kids (Americans because of their dad) to not just pack up and go and sell Taiwan out to America when it suits America's interest? I am merely applying DPP's "Love Taiwan" standard to you and your family.

WRT to Ma's election promise: he has four years, not 100 days, to deliver his policy. Let me throw Chen Shui-bian's own advice right back to you: there is no cover on the Pacific Ocean, so you should swim back to whereever you came from if you don't like the current President in Taiwan.”

Taiwanese/ABT like you are so eager to suck up to Americans that you probably think American's fart smells good. 像你們這種台僑可能連老美放的屁多說是香的.

GFYOIFIM said...

最不齒像你們這種台僑,有種的話不要躲在美國喊台灣獨立, 你回台灣替台灣人擋阿共的子彈啊!! 看不起你們這種台僑的假惺惺台獨, 只會用嘴巴喊台灣獨立,不管真的住在台灣人的死活.
喊台獨容易啊, 但阿共的原子彈打過來時你
是在美國吃香喝辣的. Michael Turton那種貨色也早拉著老婆小孩落跑回美國繼續當他的美國人,那管台灣人的死活啊.

Richard said...

MT publishes all comments, but he may be out or sleeping or something, I don't know. If your comment doesn't appear within the next 12 hours, THEN I would be surprised.

Anyways, as far as the "Love Taiwan" standard, I didn't see much coverage on that... I just know that Hsieh and the DPP did call for Ma to step down from his bid if he indeed had a green card. If you could link me to an article explaining the "Love Taiwan" campaign strategy used by the DPP this election, I'd be happy to take a look.

But, I know you haven't had the time nor likely wanted to read my previous blogs, but I do not like the idea of the "Taiwanese-ness" campaigning that the DPP has done in the past. I have a strong opinion that it only divides the people of Taiwan, and that is not what should be happening.

Just because I support the DPP, does not mean I support everything they do. And you can keep throwing Chen Shui-bian quotes around and using him against the DPP, but if you haven't noticed, the DPP have already turned their back on him.

Also, try to keep the comments in English please, I know I insert some 中文 here and there, but I do it just to help myself learn a little. I only know English and Taiwanese, and as a result I don't think I can appropriately respond to your comments that were in Mandarin as Babelfish is limited in its translation services.

GFYOIFIM said...

Michael Turton doesn't publish all comments. To test him, I have publish the same comment 5 or 6 times plus another different comment since Sunday Taiwan time. Perhaps he will publish the last one, because I challenged him to publish it if he is man enough. :) He only wants the pro Taiwan independence voice from foreigners or hard-core TI American born Taiwanese, not real Taiwanese like me who have a more nuanced and now cautious view of TI or not.

I won't bother translating my comment in Chinese for you, because it's the Taiwanese view that people like you and Michael Turton so often choose to ignore anyway.

My advice to you is go learn some Chinese so that you can hear and "read" real Taiwanese opinions from real Taiwanese, not the "filtered" crap by the likes of Michael Turton who is often extreme, one-sided and American centric. To listen to Michael's view about DPP Taiwanese is like believing that all Republicans are the right-wing-anti-abortions Christians and ignore the likes of fiscal conservatives.

Taiwan has been kicked around by Chinese, Japanese and Americans for so long. The ideal of "Taiwaneseness" and the question of Taiwanese independence is very nuanced among Taiwanese ourselves, because we have family and properties at stake. We had hope when A-bian came to power, but now realized that DPP has used our dreams of TI at great risk to our family and lives. 7 millions of us who voted for Ma this time recognized the reality/risk and wanted to try a different approach and different path. It might work or fail just like we also gave A-bain/DPP two chances in 2000 and 2004. It was too bad that DPP/A-bian blew it so badly, yet A-bain didn't forget to enrich his own family.

GFYOIFIM said...

Yes, I will read your older postings. I have been too enraged by the likes of Michael Turton and their condescending comments to a Taiwanese with a different view. He is not helping his cause if his view can enrage Taiwanese who actually have a say, because we do have votes and are willing to switch side at any time. Witching sides don't mean betraying Taiwan, because we want a better life, not a ruined and war-torn Taiwan while the Americans sit by the side line. We no longer have the illution that Americans will do something if China decide to invade Taiwan if we decalre independence.

Richard said...

I put in a comment for you asking if he's going to publish your comments. All I have is his word in the past where he's stated he publishes all comments. Even when I've had differing opinions with him, he's posted them. So, from my standpoint he publishes all.

Anyways, of course I know Michael's blog is pro-TI, pro-DPP, anti-KMT. Yes sometimes it is "extreme" sometimes, but for the most part I believe he is able to present the facts as is, while of course offering his opinion, which will be opinion favoring the pan-Green side. If he didn't offer his opinion, it would merely be another news website. Take one of his most recent posts about the actual numbers showing at the rally- he knocks on both Taipei Times and the China Post for over and under estimating. Obviously, it's according to him, but he's not just knocking one side and ignoring the other.

And I read news articles and opinions about Taiwan from both the Taipei Times and the China Post, so I'm not just brainwashing myself into believing all Taiwanese are in support of independence. But polls from both sides show that at the very least, the majority of Taiwanese are in consensus about:
1) Wanting status quo
2) Not wanting to be consumed by China

Also about Ma's 633 promise, he has four years for the two 3s, but the 6 is annual. Therefore, depending on when you want to start measuring the annual performance, he could either have until the end of this year, or until May 20, 2009, or until Dec 31, 2009 to hit that. Analyst estimates/government estimates for 2009 already show that Ma will likely miss his "6" promise, with GDP estimates at mid to high 4s, and government estimating low 5s. But, we shall wait and see as you say.

Richard said...

gfyoifim,

MT responded to my question, you can just read it for yourself. http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/2008/08/aug-30-rally-blows-away-expectations.html

I don't want to tell you what to do, but just a suggestion, statements such as "Taiwanese/ABT like you are so eager to suck up to Americans that you probably think American's fart smells good." don't really contribute to any sort of positive discourse, and so leaving out those kinds of comments will generally help you be received much better, and perhaps not have your comments filtered.

Anonymous said...

Since Michael Turton is not man enough to publish my response..

@gfyoifim,
Its not a question of being man enough, the problem is that you post ignorant, racist, hateful, illogical non-sense. Why would anyone waste their time responding to your filth and garbage?

People like you are the cancer in society.

GFYOIFIM said...

I saw Michael's response and here's my response that he probalby won't publish and that is fine. It only shows that his talk about democracy and "careing" about Taiwanese is "FAKE". He only wants to listen to his own type.

Anyhow.. I am only giving it to you to see what light green Taiwanese really thinks and how DPP might recover. There is more voices than the DARK GREEN DPP or all-KMT type voters. Sometimes I have hope for DPP, but sometimes I don't, especially when I read someone like Michael Turton's blog. There is a vocal minority in DPP like the Michael Turton type than us who are closer to the middle. DARK Green like to shout us down and label us as "Blue" or "Taiwan Traitor" at election times, but we showed the DARK Green what we light green want again and again. Too bad if DPP politicians still don't get the message after losing so many elections, then DPP will be out of power for many more years as the TI dream become more unrealistic.
WRT to TI, I have officially switched to the camp of wait-and-see for the next few years.)

-------->
Here's my response to Michael.

"It would be nice to have some, and to have some on this blog in the comments. I wish posters like gfyoifim would refrain from engaging in pointless hate speech, and instead post informed critiques."

Interesting, I only threw DPP's playbook and "love Taiwan" standard right back at you and your family, and you find that type of DPP speech "pointless and hate speech"? Now, you know how independent-thinking Taiwanese feel about DPP's tactics in the past 4 years and how that had driven away the independent voters. DPP's own tactic and election time hate speeches had marginalized itself, not KMT or the media. The new DPP Chair woman finally seems to get it, but I don't think you get it yet, Michael. However, it's ok that you don't get it, because you are a nobody to DPP.

If Tsai is serious about reforming DPP, she should listen to some old timer's advice. Listen to the majority of Taiwanese, not the 20 % DARK Green (深綠) minority in Taiwan:
http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/080901/2/154yy.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNAfnhWC0wo&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9h00Y8YYHfY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOTzxs9YmAA&NR=1

Tsai does sound good and much more "educated" so far, so I will not write her and DPP off just yet. To make DPP acceptable to the light Green 淺綠, light Blue 淺藍 voters again, she needs to make a clean break from Chen and the old DPP machine. However, let's pray the DARK green crowd won't try to tear her down when their interests are threatened in the next DPP primary. I have seen too many times what the DARK Green did to the other rational light Green politicians that I won't keep my hope up.

GFYOIFIM said...

"Its not a question of being man enough, the problem is that you post ignorant, racist, hateful, illogical non-sense. Why would anyone waste their time responding to your filth and garbage?

People like you are the cancer in society."

Ahh-- must be an epiphany to you that hateful and racist language is not welcomed. Unfortunately what you said as "racist, hateful and ignorant" is the exact language that DPP uses repeatedly against other Taiwanese with different opinions. I merely give it back to Michael & the TI crowd and you can't take it..hahaha:) That is exactly why DPP is completely out of power today. We have had enough of that kind of language by our elected DPP officials and appointed administrators.

I could be the cancer of Taiwanese society, but it's my country. Can't say that much about you. What have YOU done for Taiwan? What are you to Taiwan?

Anyway- I am done bugging Richard's blog. I will continue to finish reading Richard's postings, but I will ignore foreigners and ABT TI crowd who only love to hear their own voices, and pretend to care about Taiwan, but never really care about the fate of Taiwanese.