Wednesday, December 3, 2008

More Indecision

A lot more of what we've been seeing the past two days- that is, more choppiness and range-bound trading. Although, we are putting in a significant up trend on the 3-day chart from Monday's lows. Two charts, both of which make a more bullish case:

First chart above is the 3 day chart I mentioned. If we don't gap up or down tomorrow, we should open right at the resistance, and it should be a battle right from the start to determine the rest of the day. Although, these days, the market seems to want to fakeout every single person. I still would rather remain in cash, waiting for a better sense of direction of where the market is heading, rather than jumping in. Even though, I jumped into some puts yesterday when we hit the 61.8% retracement at around 87, and as such, currently holding them for a loss. Again, I'm paying for my mistakes that I'm blogging about to not do. Yeah, horrible. I'm still hedging sort of with shares of SSO, and will continue to add to the SSO position on down moves- most likely at 84, where we've found significant support there over the past couple months. Why? Well, most of what I see on the charts is just making the case for the bulls:

The descending triangle is usually a continuation pattern, and it worked the first time as we broke down on 11/19 to the downside (continuing the downtrend); but the market quickly reclaimed that support over the next three trading days. So, I know the descending triangle is usually a continuation pattern, and not a reversal pattern, but perhaps we are breaking to the upside temporarily in this case. Adding to that, the SPY also reclaimed the 5DMA.

The good news for the bears, we're still in a downtrend as seen by the 50DMA, and obviously the 200DMA. But, if we were to test even the 50DMA, there will be a world of pain for the bears to ride that one out.

On a side note, Obama can't seem to get off the air. He's been... maybe off the air for maybe one or two days out of the past week and half? And one of those days was Thanksgiving, so he's been on everyday in my opinion. Isn't this guy the one that said that there's only one president at a time? So why is he acting like he's the president already? As much as Bush is a lame-duck president already, please, we have set terms and inaugurations for a reason. They aren't there as guidelines, but as rules.

No comments: