Election Day!

Update: Election Results - "DPP gains, KMT wins"

From the bullet points below:

• Current political map for these 17 positions have 14 going to the KMT, and 3 to the DPP. I think most people would deem the DPP as "winning" if they take any seats away from the KMT. --- CHECK! The KMT lost 2 seats - one to the DPP, and one to an Independent. ---
  
• This election is also being seen as the half-way verdict on Ma Ying-jeou's presidency thus far. We will see how the Morakot disaster as well as the ignoring of the public's non-approval of the ECFA plays in. --- Half a check. The DPP has up-played the fact that the overall voter % for the DPP has risen, citing disapproval of Ma, while the KMT and Ma will downplay the connection between these local elections and a "mid-term" test of Ma's presidency. ---
  
• Yilan County is being touted as the county election to watch. --- CHECK! Yilan returns to the DPP after a 'one and done' term by the KMT candidate. ---
  

One would be hard pressed to say that the KMT had an "overwhelming" victory as I've seen some news articles say. Most reports that have come out so far have given the DPP wins a positive spin, and rightfully so. Taitung and Penghu counties were won by the KMT by razor thin margins (reports of a KMT win in Penghu by only 600 votes), and the big run for Yilan went to the DPP. Of note is seeing that Penghu rejected the KMT referendum on casinos a couple months ago rather decisively, and yet continue to vote for the KMT on a pretty 1:1 ratio with the DPP. It will be interesting to see what comes out of this, as their has been calls to "review" the votes for the Penghu County election.

I will let eTaiwannews.com take it away with some ending details:

Of 4.09 million valid votes, the DPP received 1.98 million or 45.36 percent compared to 2.09 million or 47.87 percent for the KMT, 0.36 percent to the Hakka Party and 6.41 percent to independent candidates.

In addition, the DPP expanded its number of grassroots township mayors by 29.8 percent from 20 to 34 and boosted the number of its city or county assembly seats from 107 in December 2005 to 129 for a 15.1 percent increase.

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Just dropping in to say that today is the day that a lot of Taiwanese have been waiting for, for a good 6 months, hoping to see the DPP start to rebuild itself. The polls should open in about 3 hours or so. Just a few points:

• Current political map for these 17 positions have 14 going to the KMT, and 3 to the DPP. I think most people would deem the DPP as "winning" if they take any seats away from the KMT.
  
• This election is also being seen as the half-way verdict on Ma Ying-jeou's presidency thus far. We will see how the Morakot disaster as well as the ignoring of the public's non-approval of the ECFA plays in.
• Yilan County is being touted as the county election to watch.

As far as the markets, the TAIEX jumped back inside the 50DMA, but the recent intraday moves on the U.S. side continues to caution of going long (two consecutive days of gap up, with no follow through and ending lower on the day). I remain cautiously short.