Monday, September 15, 2008

Testing of July Lows

LEH to file for bankruptcy, and BAC to attempt to buy MER. Right now the SPY is staging a mini-comeback but it's fading just as quickly as it started. A retest of the July lows is likely to happen tomorrow, pending no more "emergency" Fed decisions. The July lows is crucial to the nearterm movement of the market, a break below the July lows, which is also pretty much the sentimental 12000 point of the S&P500, would likely start another round of selling that has yet to be seen.

Here's todays chart fort he SPY which is still being finalized in the last 10 minutes as I write this:

Note the bearish Inverted Hammer appearing today, a reversal from the previous two up days.

Many have been calling for the non-bailout of companies like LEH, and I hope we get it. Our market will not correct if the government keeps stepping in. It only delays the inevitable to the point where the collapse will be utterly hard and fast, you won't know what hit you. As far as BAC buying out MER for the ridiculous price of $29/share, that will have a hard time getting approved by regulators, which is likely why MER's price only gapped up to $23 today, and has now faded to the low $17s. Even taking approval by regulators out of the pictures, the shareholders of BAC will likely want to reject the buyout; the ridiculous price of $29/share when MER was just trading in the low teens last week is horrendous.

Anyways, look for the test of July lows, if we break it, we're headed lower. I read this on the Yahoo! Message Boards:

The Fed is officially out of bullets.

Oh sure, they can bail out Lehman, and they can lower rates some more.

But that @#$% don't fly with wall street any down we go.

You either gotta be:

1) Short
2) In cash
3) Fetal position, sucking thumb

Pick one and act. This one is gonna get ugly!
This will necessarily affect the Taiwan markets, as they've already taken a hit since they are a day ahead of us in the U.S. As I stated last week, use any rallies to get our of your long positions or even go short. But #2 above is likely the most safest route, cash is king right now.

As always, the appearance of these alone should not indicate a reversal; the safe trade should be to wait for confirmation in the next candlestick (trading day). And the necessary disclaimer:

Disclaimer: Any stocks or equities mentioned may or may not be part of my personal holdings, and thus may affect my outlook on the mentioned stock. Any trades/investments made as a result of my comments are committed at your own risk. In short, you losing your own money is not my fault.

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