Saturday, August 15, 2009

Morakot: Ma Ying Jeou Doesn't Care About Taiwanese People

What started out as a disaster is quickly snowballing into a monster that Ma and his administration cannot control. With the official death toll of Typhoon Morakot now at 121, and expected to reach over 500, questions will eventually need to raised about the response and efforts of Ma Ying Jeou, his administration.

Let's just first lay out some groundwork from where questions can be raised:

Aug. 7th, the morning before Typhoon Morakot was about to hit, the Central Weather Bureau [CWB] issues warnings for northern and northeast Taiwan about torrential rains and powerful winds. Nowhere in the warnings are southern and southeast Taiwan included. Is the CWB really that bad, or is there something else at hand here?

That same night that Morakot was just about to start hitting Taiwan, Ma Ying Jeou was at a wedding reception, have[ing] a good time like this reunion, and drink[ing] wine like its Communion. Should not the president of Taiwan be in some sort of national security meeting, with advisers on how best to prepare and respond to the impending typhoon?

Aug. 8th, as Morakot started hovering over Taiwan, Taipei City/County issue last minute "Typhoon Day" announcements. With the advance knowledge of the impending Typhoon, many of the counties and cities were flip-flopping back and forth between declaring a "Typhoon Day" or not- irritating many residents. Again, the CWB raises warnings for northern and northeast Taiwan for flooding and potential landslides. Warnings for southern and southeast Taiwan? Still nothing.

Aug. 9th, with Morakot making its last impressions on Taiwan, the "surprise" out of Taiwan is that southern Taiwan had been pummeled by Morakot overnight. Floodings and mudslides were noted as major problems in southern Taiwan- the exact warnings that the CWB gave for northern and northeast Taiwan:
Mudslides were reported in mountainous areas in the counties of Nantou, Pingdong and Taitung, forcing the closure of some bridges during the storm.
As Ma made his way down to the areas that were hit hard, instead of showing that he's in control and giving confidence to the people, he shows indifference and sarcasm in his words towards the victims. In one event, Ma Ying Jeou was told by a man that "we all voted for you, why did it take so long to see you, why is it so hard to see you when we need you the most?" In response, Ma stated, "I didn't know you were looking for me, am I not here now?" The words that articles have used to describe Ma during his visits are clearly "irritated and impatient." Is this truly how Ma is all the time? I doubt it, this type of irritation and impatience would not have gotten him into office last March, nor would it be the type of personality he would show to his beloved Hu Jintao.

Aug. 10th, the south still under distress. At this time, one KMT official decided it would be best to continue working on campaign activities for the upcoming local elections, and put on an event for the local KMT candidates. The KMT party, rightful in doing so, banned Fan Heng-chih from the party. Despite the restriction from participating in campaigning activities, it is noted in the article:
Cheng said most of the KMT members who went to survey the affected areas with President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) were the party’s nominees for the year-end local elections, not incumbent county commissioners.

This shows that they were there simply to rally support for their candidacy, Cheng said.

Aug. 11, the international community steps up to help-- but the Ma administration/MOFA decline, citing that they have efficient resources to take care of the situation:
The deputy spokesman said the Foreign Ministry appreciated the U.S. and Japan's offers to help but indicated that Taiwan would not request foreign assistance at present because there are sufficient recourses and the disaster relief mechanism is working well.
At the same time, Ma starts the blame game, rather than taking responsibility for the situation. First, Ma blames the Central Weather Bureau for the damage caused by the Typhoon. What? Yes, confusing, but he does it (this is not to say that the CWB probably does need additional funding to improve their weather casting).

Aug. 12, the U.S. still has the offer open to send supply help, in addition to monetary help-- still no response from the Ma administration/MOFA.
“MOFA said ‘no’ to the international community on behalf of the Taiwanese people, but the people never said ‘no,’” Lo said.
It should be no surprise actually, since Ma and his KMT buddies have been doing this all along, disregarding what the people want, and are planning on continuing to do so with the ECFA. So far, Ma has stated that he plans to push through an ECFA, regardless of public opinion.

Around this time is when the media, especially international outlets, including the NY Times and WSJ started catching onto the anger by the victims against Ma Ying Jeou's lack of proper reponse to the situation, which included the decision to not declare a state of emergency despite the fact that this is the worst typhoon in half a century to hit Taiwan.

Critics focused on the Ma administration's decision to refrain from issuing an emergency order that would give the government greater power to requisition personnel and equipment. The government has also declined to ask for assistance from international organizations.

The government said both steps were unnecessary. Presidential spokesman Wang Yu-chi said legal changes made after a 1999 earthquake gave the administration enough power and flexibility to deal with the catastrophe. "The rescue needs to be improved, but we don't think issuing an emergency order would help," he said.

Note here that the government sees the state of emergency declaration as unnecessary because the administration already "has enough power and flexibility to deal with the catastrophe." Is this true? From the looks on the faces of the victims and the flood of calls on the internet for more help, I would beg to differ. Again, this goes along with the theme here: the Ma administration continuing to do how they see fit, instead of listening to the public and victims.

Aug. 13, Ma confirms their decision to not declare a state of emergency. The question here is not, why should Ma declare a state of emergency, more so, it is why should Ma not declare a state of emergency. Doing so would give the government more power and access to emergency responses to handle the situation better. At the very least, doing so could possibly be a morale booster. As this editorial points out:
Arguments over the reach of the law and the utility of a presidential emergency decree will continue for some time, but for the moment, it is dumbfounding to recall that the president, speaking at the Central Emergency Operation Center on Saturday, shifted responsibility to local governments. He said it was those governments that should act as prime movers in rescue work and that the central government would act as an auxiliary. Given that local governments enjoy no authority to deploy military resources, Ma’s little lecture was as nonsensical as his verbaling of the Central Weather Bureau for failing to predict the enormity of the disaster.

Cabinet Spokesman Su Jun-pin (蘇俊賓) on Sunday said the scope and speed of the central government’s rescue work had exceeded that of the 921 Earthquake almost 10 years ago.

But a cursory comparison suggests this is not the case. Hours after the quake struck on Sept. 21, 1999, the Hengshan Military Command Center ordered the deployment of forces to disaster zones and commenced rescue work. Within a day, more than 15,000 personnel were stationed in quake-ravaged regions and advanced helicopters such as the OH-58D, which carries laser range finders and thermal imaging sensors, were deployed for rescue operations.

How ironic it is that a large number of the nation’s military bases are in southern Taiwan, yet three days after Typhoon Morakot slammed into the area on Friday, the military had deployed a mere 8,500 personnel to stricken areas, and without provision for advanced aircraft.
The Ma administration believes it is acting and responding faster to the situation than the government did back in the 9/21 earthquake, despite what the facts say. 15,000 personnel were activated in one day for the 9/21 earthquake, while thus far only 8,500 have been deployed after 5 days.

I've also heard that many military personnel stationed were in "ready" mode to be deployed to disaster areas, but they were simply waiting for the command to come down to move out. Either there's a communication problem, or Ma is really dropping the ball here and thinking that their response has really been adequate.

Aug. 14, the Ma administration "flip-flops" and decides it actually does need help from foreign countries. Once again, Ma Ying Jeou denies that he ever declined foreign aid, despite the evidence of doing so (see Aug. 11). MOFA then goes on to say that it was a "typo," and that they never meant to actually decline foreign aid. Tell me you aren't naive enough to believe that.

That same day, a report comes out of China from one of their experts on Cross-Strait Economic Exchanges, citing that an ECFA between China and Taiwan would greatly advance the peaceful unification of China and Taiwan. This goes in contrast to what Ma Ying Jeou has stated.

Aug. 15, the MOFA comes out and says they are sorry over not receiving foreign aid earlier, but denies that it was a mistake. Now, instead of it being a mistake, the word "carelessness" is being used. Now we are starting to get a better idea of what Ma and his administration have been doing all this time, busy with word games over how to best phrase things so they don't sound like complete idiots. A simple sorry and then how they are going to quickly get the aid out there would have been much more effective and appropriate.

This same day, reports also come out from Tainan and Taitung that on visits by Ma Ying Jeou to Tainan, and a visit by the Minister of National Defense to Taitung, volunteers and military personnel (respectively) were ordered to stop their relief work in order to make space for Ma Ying Jeou, or in the military case, to stand in line and salute their Minister of National Defense.
On Wednesday at 10am, while the troops were setting up the steel frame, their commander ordered them to stop work and stand in formation to welcome Chen, who spent 40 minutes listening to briefings and talking to the press.

One witness said many of the soldiers had complained privately that they would have rather worked than stand and listen to the defense minister
Taiwan's military being very efficient, right? That's whats left of the the government after Ma has been on a political witch-hunt, purging many Pan-Green officials in all levels of the government, including the military (Sorry, can't find the link for these right now, but if you search hard enough, they are there).

There's no denying that a large constituency of Pan-Green voters lie in the south. Is this niggardly response by Ma Ying Jeou to the disaster because the south is Pan-Green? Is Ma simply taking a back-seat because he is assuming the Taiwanese have already bent-over and are unwilling to stand up against his injustices? Did Ma ignore and decline help from outsiders because he fears they will see how inefficient and irresponsible he has handled the disaster, as well as the fear that the international community will actually find out that there is a large % of Taiwanese upset with his performance (Note, this is the first time that Ma has received negative press on the international level)? Is Ma too concerned with image, so much concerned at the cost of lives being saved?

The point of all this? To make my point crystal, clear. And I do mean, crystal-clear. Ma and his buddies up in their comfortable seats in the government have done a half-assed job at responding to Morakot. Can Taiwan really afford to let Ma and his administration along with many of his KMT buddies, continue to do a half-assed job running the country of Taiwan? If you haven't been paying attention, the only thing that this administration has been good at since coming into office has been kowtowing to Hu Jintao, Communist China, and the CCP. We need to ask ourselves, is Ma really the president of Taiwan? If so, is he acting in the best interests of Taiwan? Or is he acting in the best interests of someone else.

Perhaps a comparison of the donations he has made to the Sichuan earthquake in China to the Morakot typhoon will shed some light. Ma Ying Jeou (along with Chen Shui-bian (ex-president, DPP) and Tsai Ing-wen, DPP Chairwoman)) all made donations of $6,500USD to relief efforts of the Sichuan earthquake. This time, Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen have both made donations of $30,000USD towards the relief efforts of Typhoon Morakot. How much has Ma Ying Jeou donated? Nothing. I think it speaks volumes when Ma Ying Jeou was so quick to donate and man the phone-lines for call-in donations for the Sichuan earthquake, and for supposedly his "own" people, nothing of the same magnitude. It is of note that Ma Ying Jeou was quoted as saying something along the lines of, "we should help [them], because they [Sichuan earthquake victims] are our Chinese brothers." So I guess the real story here is that Taiwan's own president considers himself Chinese, because he definitely is not helping out the Taiwanese- after all, he really isn't Taiwanese, rather Cantonese (born in Hong Kong).

Make no mistake, after many of the lies that Ma Ying Jeou has told, do not believe him for a second when he says he and the KMT are not planning on taking Taiwan down a path toward unification. His actions over the past week have not only highlighted the inadequacies of his leadership, but his lack of concern for the Taiwanese people.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Let's not make the same mistake again, by voting Ma Ying Jeou back into office in 2012. And you can start by voting out the KMT in the end of the year local elections. Remember 8/8, because if we don't, Taiwanese may never have another chance at "Taiwan."

I'm looking forward to the day when we can get a Taiwanese celebrity to finally stand-up and say, "Fuck the money, Taiwan is Taiwan, China is China, and Ma Ying-Jeou doesn't care about Taiwanese people."
(In reference to Kanye West).

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Special Post for Typhoon Morakot - Ways to Help

"Special" post, only because I'm supposed to officially be on break from blogging for a few weeks. See previous post below. Anyways, here's some information for helping out:

Volunteering:

Donating money:

Notable donations from political figures (as seen in this article):

Koo Kwang-ming (辜寬敏), former presidential adviser, DPP: US$913,000
Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), former premier, DPP: US$63,000
Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Democratic Progressive Party chairperson, DPP: US$30,000
Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), former president, DPP: US$30,000

Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), legislative speaker, KMT: US$30,000
Sean Lien (連勝文), Taipei EasyCard Corp chairman, KMT:US$46,000
Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄), KMT chairman, KMT:US$60,000

Totals:
DPP: $1,036,000 USD
KMT: $136,000 USD

Even though Sean Lien is not an official political figure, I gave the KMT the benefit of doubt and included him. Also, although Wang Jin-pyng is KMT, he's much like a Lee Teng Hui in that he's rumored to be a supporter of Taiwan Independence, or at least definitely not in support of unification. The numbers speak for themselves, even though the KMT is very rich, the DPP figures have out-donated the KMT side by basically a 10:1 ratio. Notably missing in the list? Your president, Ma Ying-Jeou, who although can't seem to find a way to help out the country he's the president of, managed to donate $6,500USD to the Sichuan earthquake. Ma Ying Jeou's actions speak louder than his words (with the exception of when he attempts to speak 台語).

Taking a Break


... waiting for the bear to get off its back...

Well, not that I haven't already, but I'm just putting this up here in case any of my few avid readers checks on my blog often-- that is, I'll be taking a break from blogging on both stocks and politics. Although I have more free time than ever, I've got a lot of things on my mind right now.

While I've been trying to figure out what in the world is going on in the markets (it's just a parabolic shoot up?!), and thus trying to take a step back and re-evaluate my trading, I'm also trying to find the direction for my career/life. Not sure what my next step is for now, so just trying to close up some loose ends.

But fear not, this blog will be back, with a cosmetic change (already made some changes already)! I'm looking for a return sometime early September. Hopefully by then, some normalcy will have returned to the markets and I'll have a refreshed mind to short this sucker to the ground. For the time being, check out excellent Taiwan blogs on the right side of the page- I just added two more blogs on Taiwan to the blogroll, Talk Taiwan, In Claudia Jean's Eyes, as well as DaHwa News 大話新聞 (Unofficial). The DaHwa News blog is not the official blog of the talk show, but it provides a lot of good media on there, including links to the actual program.

Lastly, for those who have been following my EWT trade, it is pretty much a goner now, but I've still got a couple months left on those options. Although the price action has not gone against me that much, the time-decay in the options is just sucking the life out of them. I don't know if it's just EWT or what, but it has experienced (in my view) significant theta decay compared to other options I've held before. Perhaps a thinly traded ETF like EWT should be shorted via the underlying stock. My view remains the same, a break above $11.50 +/- change would cancel my bearishness on EWT. As always, my chart:



P.S. If you somehow didn't notice my new banner up top, you can hopefully still see my blog inscription (along with thousands of other writings) at the Eluanbi Park (鵝鑾鼻) in Kenting. There's a viewing point up there near the "Kissing Rocks" tourist spot (just continue up the stairs from there!), where you can catch a glimpse of Taiwan's shoreline as well as a nice place to sit and relax and enjoy the view (if there aren't hordes of people there). If you ever happen to pass through there and snap a photo of it, I would be delighted to hear from you!

Friday, July 24, 2009

The First Obama-move I Finally Am Impressed With

This is semi-old news I believe, but Utah Governor, Jon Huntsman has been selected by Obama to be their China ambassador. I guess the newer news is that previously news had not revealed that he was a Taiwanese (Hoklo) speaker- at least I did not catch that the first time. A previous Mormon missionary to Taiwan, Taiwanese (Hoklo) speaker, Mandarin speaker, and is noted in article as being "personally invested in the fate of Taiwan."

The governor, who lived in Taiwan as a Mormon missionary, said he felt “personally invested in the peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences, in a way that respects the wishes of the people on both Taiwan and the mainland.”

He said that current US policy “supports this objective, and I have been encouraged by the recent relaxing of cross-strait tensions.”

The governor received warm praise from senators of both parties, and the committee was expected to refer his nomination to the full Senate quickly for confirmation before lawmakers leave for a month-long recess on Aug. 7.
While he sort of follows the line of improved cross-strait relations, he doesn't quite use improved, but uses relaxed- which I could say is more on par with reality. A positive out of this appointment is the cross-party support Huntsman will likely receive in his confirmation- making the point to Beijing that this is not a Republican, nor a Democrat thing.

As always, talk is cheap. But we can be hopeful. Hopefully he does not become another Jimmy Carter.

On a sidenote, Huntsman was mentioned as a possible 2012 presidential candidate for the Republicans. Chatter and rumors say this could be a move by Obama to ship him to China to lessen his probability on being a runner in 2012.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Sorrow of Listening to Communists

An interesting editorial today in the China Post, titled "Sorry of being Taiwanese." As with many editorials in the China Post, this one is again signed off by a vague, "The China Post news staff." At least can we get a name behind who these opinions are? Or are they indeed the opinion of The China Post (wouldn't be a surprise).

This editorial piece is all over the place, and I really don't know how to respond. It just seemed like some typical things some Communist Chinese would say. The main point of this piece is to bring to question why Taiwanese view China as the most unfriendliest country towards China, and attemps to make Japan the bully.

Leaving aside these Han Chinese settlers' own colonialist oppression against Taiwan's Aborigines, the real “Native Taiwanese,” the fact remains that Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, French and Japanese colonialists did indeed oppress Han Chinese on Taiwan.

But have Lee and other champions of Taiwan's independence ever directed their justifiable resentment of colonialist oppression against Taiwan's Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, French and Japanese colonizers?

No, they have not.

Instead, in defiance of all reason, they have redirected all their pent-up frustrations against other Han Chinese who arrived on Taiwan after 1945, and against other Han Chinese who have never even been to Taiwan, but who live on the Chinese mainland.

While I am not knowledgable enough to comment on what types of oppression was committed on the people living on Formosa by the Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, etc... I have enough common sense to know why Taiwanese (including not just those who "champion Taiwan's independence") resent the oppression of China and not Japan and those others- how about just the fact that China is the current one that is oppresing Taiwan. Regardless of the past (although the past is important sometimes), the current situation is that the Portuguese, Dutch, etc. have hardly any involvement in the Taiwan Straits, and Japan is clearly (at least should be clear) an ally of Taiwan, and the oppresor is China.

It's pretty obvious this article is written by a "Han Chinese" living in Taiwan after 1945, or by actual Communists living in China. The great emphasis on "Han Chinese" and the distinct comparison of Taiwan-Chinese mainland instead of Taiwan-China, is enough for me to know where this article's bias is headed.

The counter-point by the writer to my point that the current aggressor is China, not Japan?

Dismiss the 50,000 to 100,000 Taiwanese murdered by the Japanese between 1895 and 1945 as “ancient history,” as “bygones.” What about the aggression being committed by Japan against Taiwanese this very minute?

The young people polled apparently have no idea that Japan has annexed the Taiwanese island of Diaoyutai, and expanded its Exclusive Economic Zone to include waters a mere 37 km off the coast of Ilan and Hualien counties. Japanese Coast Guard vessels have intercepted Taiwanese fishing vessels found in “Japanese waters.” Japanese Coast Guard personnel have arrested Taiwanese fishermen, forced them to kneel before their captors, slapped them in the face, spit on them, and screamed racial epithets in their ears.

Ignoring whatever "Japan has annexed the Taiwanese island of Diaoyutai" means, the article also fails to point out that the PRC also lays claim to the islands. Furthermore, for most Taiwanese, these islands may not mean much to them. Japanese threat of fishermens at distant island that they in their whole life will most likely never go to, versus, PRC threat to Taiwan via 1,500+ missiles. Tell me, which would you call more unfriendly?

Nothing is wrong with Taiwanese, i.e., Chinese people on Taiwan, wanting to stand tall, walk out into the world, and enjoy respect. This is a perfectly laudable, completely understandable, and highly desirable goal.

Yes, thank you for defining what Taiwanese are- Chinese people on Taiwan. Why don't we go ahead and insist that Americans are British people on America as well. That way, we can start clearing things up.

But respect entails self-respect. Before others will respect you, one must first respect oneself. Self-respect in turn entails self-affirmation. If one respects oneself, one will have no hesitation affirming who one is.

A reluctance to affirm who one is, a determination to pretend one is something one is not, is symptomatic of a deep-seated lack of self-respect. If one is reluctant to affirm who one is, if one is determined to pretend one is something one is not, one has already invalidated oneself at one's very core. Nothing one can do subsequently will ever make up for this initial act of self-invalidation.

Apparently many young Taiwanese have no self-respect for themselves. At least, speaking for myself, I do. I respect myself, and I can affirm who I am- a Taiwanese-American. My parents, can also affirm that they are Taiwanese (but not the definition the article uses), with self-respect as well.

The reluctance of champions of Taiwan independence to affirm that they are Chinese, their stubborn insistence that they are “Taiwanese, not Chinese,” rather than “Taiwanese and Chinese,” their pathetic attempts to ingratiate themselves with their Japanese victimizers, are all symptoms of a profound lack of self-respect. Champions of Taiwan independence who refuse to affirm who they are, who insist on pretending they are something they are not, have already invalidated themselves at their very core. Nothing they can do subsequently will ever make up for this initial act of self-invalidation.

Are you serious? The whole point of Taiwanese declaring that we are Taiwanese, not Chinese is in itself an act of affirmation of who we are. Rather than self-invalidating who we are, we are validating and declaring to the world who we are. Is it necessarily that we hate Chinese? No. It is my belief that the "Taiwanese" movement is that we want the right to declare to the world who we are, and not have someone else tell us who we are. That is the biggest problem with people from China these days, they always have to tell me that I am Chinese as if they are the ones that are in a place to say so. So why can't Taiwanese and Chinese co-exist? As long as we can both have respect, and self-respect for each other, then all should be well. But, instead we have Chinese insisting that Taiwanese are Chinese, and apparently the person who wrote this editorial also insists that Taiwanese are Chinese.

Dear China Post news staff, I apologize for my pathetic attempt to side with Japan instead of China. Because, we all know that China is all about self-respect, as long as you are Han Chinese. But if you are the "Chinese living on Taiwan" type that does not want to unify with China, then we are dogs and we can eat shit and die. Yeah, I know the drill- and don't try and deny it.

An interesting find while I was looking up some info on the Diaoyutai islands-- I came across this website, which pretty much has the same wording as this editorial:

The reluctance of Pan Green Quislings to affirm that they are Chinese, their stubborn insistence that they are "Taiwanese, not Chinese," their pathetic attempts to spin themselves as "quasi-Japanese," are all symptoms of the Pan Green Quislings' profound lack of self-respect. Pan Green Quislings who refuse to affirm who they are, who insist on pretending they are something they are not, have already invalidated themselves at their very core. Nothing they can do subsequently will ever make up for this initial act of self-invalidation.

So I am going to go out on a limb and say either the person who wrote this editorial plagerized, or is the person behind this website (and blog since the website is no longer active).

The ediotorial ends:

This is the real meaning of the “sorrow of being born Taiwanese.”
I'd say this editorial is the real meaning of the "sorrow of listening to Communists."

EWT Short By TK

Fellow blogger on the markets, Tim Knight, over at the Slope of Hope , has shorted EWT, highlighting the similar resistance level I mentioned in my previous post. I have not entered more short positions in EWT, as this bulltardness going on in the markets is just ridiculous. I've personally stepped in front of this bulltrain many times over the past weeks, and I've gotten run over, over and over.

So, I may change my timeframe on this EWT short to a shorter timeframe, where upon a retrace downwards, will induce a new leg up in EWT.

Price level remains the same to watch for: $11.50-11.59. If this level is breached on strong volume and follow through, we may see more highs in store for Taiwan.

In other news, I'm fully short GS and AAPL as of today (another of my attempts to run in front of a bull-train).

Saturday, July 18, 2009

EWT - Upward Channel

Okay, back in the US now (I'll miss you Taiwan!)...

A quick update on EWT:



On the 60m chart, we've established a new upward channel on EWT. If we break above the $11.05 78.6% retracement level off the June 1st highs, we may have to reconsider my previous assumption that EWT is resuming the downward trend on the larger picture (in this bear market). A break above $11.47 (previous highs) would be really bullish, and that will definitely make me bail on my Sept 10 Puts. Those puts are already trading at only $0.25, my cost at $0.79- taking a large drawndown right now. I'm very tempted to exit for a loss if we get above $11.05, and re-entering upon better probabilities that lower prices are in-store for EWT.

Edit: Taking a step back and looking at the daily chart on the 2 year time frame, I had previously drawn the retracement levels from the highs and lows on the 2 year chart. The $11.05 is now more important than I thought. Look below:



We have a short ambush (50% retrace) on this time-frame. As we know, the larger the time frame, the more important the levels and moves become. I may consider entering EWT puts on my secondary account at this juncture. The reward/risk here is decent. Enter short with stop, say above $11.10. A better entry with excellent risk/reward is wait for low $11s and short, with stop above the previous interm high at $11.59. Will update as always if I take the trade.