Economic Integration Leads To Political Integration

I came across this article in Canadian Business Online on how some Taiwanese businessmen view Taiwan as just a stop on their way to making fortunes in China. It's a short article, but interesting to see how some Taiwanese are not shy at all about their intentions with China. That is, their intentions to fully disregard Taiwan's current political status as an independent democracy, in favor or making an extra buck or two (or three).

"Economic convergence will gradually lead to political convergence," says the straight-talking chairman of the Taiwan Mergers & Acquisitions and Private Equity Council. "You give the Taiwanese people enough candy and they will surrender in the end."

Huang's belief in economics as a prologue to politics is shared by many members of Taiwan's powerful business community, which provides key backing for President Ma Ying-jeou's signature policy of linking Taiwan's high tech economy to China's lucrative markets.

Since Ma took office in May 2008, Taiwan's economic connection to the mainland — already robust even under the pro-independence regime of his predecessor — has moved into high gear, spurred by this year's signing of a partial free trade agreement between the sides, and the rapid acceleration of direct flights and shipping across the 100-mile- (160-kilometer-) wide Taiwan Strait.

Huang is certainly on the same page with those in China; seeing not only that economic integration is just a means for them to bait Taiwan into political integration, but also that Ma Ying-jeou is a key player in Beijing's plans for Taiwan.

The article makes a point that is often portrayed incorrectly in that economic cooperation between Taiwan and China was already happening and increasing every year under the presidency of Chen Shui-bian. While it was at a much slower-pace, one must view the slow pace in a favorable way. As the "high gear" approach that Ma Ying-jeou has undertaken is something that has basically happened without any sort of oversight by the legislature, as well as the people of Taiwan.

Furthermore, a large part of the reason for the quick economic agreements that have taken place is due to the fact that Ma has no longer maintained Taiwan's sovereignty in negotiating with China. Whereas, during the Chen Shui-bian era, the DPP would only negotiate with China if China did not have the prerequisite of coming to the table under the agreement of the One China Policy - that is, Taiwan and China are both one country.

Another interesting thing that Huang stated was on the future of Taiwan and China:

Still, the business community is convinced that time is on the side of eventual union.
"I think it will take about ten years for a political arrangement to take place," said Huang, who believes that Ma will be re-elected in 2012 "because people will think twice" about sacrificing the benefits of their China economic connection.

Personally, I have been under the belief that the longer Taiwan and China remain separate, the harder it will be for China to bring Taiwan under their umbrella  under favorable circumstances. Perhaps even under unfavorable circumstances (by force), it may become harder as the years progress. The way I look at it is like this:

1) During the 8 years under Chen Shui-bian, Chen did a great job in cultivating a pride in Taiwan, domestically and abroad. Now with 2 years under China-leaning Ma, polls have continued to show a continual move towards favoring independence and status-quo, and a lower amount of those supporting unification. The numbers run similar for considering oneself as Taiwanese and/or Chinese. With that said, it does not make sense that even under further KMT-rule, that the people of Taiwan would revert back to pro-unification and pro-not Taiwanese thinking.

2) The result of #1 is that it inevitably affects how Ma can run the government on Taiwan (especially in terms of cross-straits policy). The problem for Ma right now is that while he wants to push his agenda with China faster and quicker, the Taiwanese are pushing back. They are doing this on the streets in protests, and at the ballots. This results in a sort of stand-still for Ma in which he can't push too far towards China without losing credibility on Taiwan.

3) Consider this as well. China is very much aware of how the relationship between Taiwan and China did not progress in their favor under the Chen administration. Any hopes of pursuing unchecked economic integration under the One China Principle was totally hopeless to them. Naturally, any hopes of pursuing political integration would be out of the question. Thus, it's reasonable to assume that China would like to continue to see their willing partner in Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou, continue to remain in office through 2016. Otherwise, under another DPP administration, their efforts over the past 2 years (4 eventually) in furthering a Taiwan-China inseparable integration, will likely have gone to waste.

The only reason I can think of at this point that would allow China to have an easier time as time goes on for unification, is via force and military means. Within the next decade, China should have their aircraft carriers and other marine forces up and running - able to compete and perhaps deter the U.S. from entering into the area to protect Taiwan. We've seen many times in the past where China has backed down after the U.S. got involved in the area. If China can contain the U.S. involvement, politically as well as militarily, between Taiwan and China, then their chances of succeeding in unifying Taiwan with China by force, greatly increases.

Taiwan Quick Hits

• 69.9% of Taiwanese do not want to unify with China - highest since the poll started in 2006.
• Approval ratings of Ma remain low while ECFA is about even at 47%.
  
• Taiwan now looking to procure tanks and torpedoes.
• Ma sees greater international respect now that ECFA is signed. What?

Let's review that last one, from the article:

Ma said that the biggest benefit of the ECFA is that it will give Taiwan a more favorable position to get involved in the world and that the government is seeking to establish free trade agreements or economic cooperation pacts with other countries that could benefit Taiwan.

One would have thought that the ECFA would benefit Taiwan economically via trade from China, and yet here Ma is saying the biggest benefit is that it can get more involved with the world? So basically what Ma is confessing is exactly what we all feared - Taiwan's sovereignty was downgraded such that only through an "ECFA" with China, can we possibly (not even guaranteed) sign FTAs with other countries. The sad part is that officials in China have already let the cat out of the bag in saying that the ECFA being signed does not change anything - they will still unfairly block FTAs being forged between Taiwan and other countries.

Is Ma being tricked, or are the Taiwanese being tricked? I think the latter, and Ma is knowingly throwing Taiwan into China's hand.

PBS Frontline Video: Obama's Deal

For some political news outside of Taiwan (for once). I picked up on this through the usual Facebook feeds. It's a worthy watch for anyone, as it gives insight into how politics works in Washington. Change? Hardly. Just more of the same under a different mask.

Excerpt from this description of the video off the website:

On March 23, 2010, after a bruising year of debate, negotiation and backlash, President Barack Obama finally signed the health reform bill that he had promised more than a year before. But at what cost to his popularity and to the ideals of bipartisanship and open government that he'd campaigned on?

In Obama's Deal, veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk (Bush's War, Dreams of Obama) takes viewers behind the headlines to reveal the political maneuvering behind Barack Obama's effort to remake the American health system and transform the way Washington works. Through interviews with administration officials, senators and Washington lobbyists, Obama's Deal reveals the dramatic details of how an idealistic president pursued the health care fight -- despite the warnings of many of his closest advisers -- and how he ended up making deals with many of the powerful special interests he had campaigned against.

Click here for link to Frontline Video, Obama's Deal.

The biggest surprise for me was that despite knowing that Obama was not the real deal that he made himself out to be, was that Obama ended up making backroom deals with those he criticized the most. If you watch the video, this is the part where they talk about how Obama blasts Billy Tauzin during his campaigning in 2008 for his lobbyist activities, and then later signs a secret deal with Tauzin in order to push through health-care reform.

The sad part about this all is that it was not what the American public wanted. Polls after polls showed that the American public did not want the current health care bill. We end up with a broken bill that is not what Obama wanted, but in his effort to just get it done for the sake of claiming he got it done, this is what we are left with.

This should serve as a warning for Taiwan. Currently, President Ma is trying to push through an ECFA with China despite poll after poll showing the Taiwanese public having many concerns over an ECFA agreement. Furthermore, a lot of Taiwanese don't even know what the ECFA will contain. You must continually ask this question: Why does President Ma not wish to hold a referendum on whether to pass an ECFA or not? I believe there is no viable answer for this question that upholds Taiwan's democracy and best interests at the same time. If you have one that does, please let us know. Here's a good post from A-gu about what's going on with the referendum issue, past and current.

Google: A Warning for Taiwan and Ma's ECFA

An article in the April 5th issue of Business Week targets China as a manipulator and a country where countries are starting to realize the lack of business potential there. It was a refreshing read in that until recently (with the Google vs China fiasco), the way to make money was to head east to China. I happened to pick up the paper magazine of this issue, but you can also read it here online.

All of the issues raised in this piece point to the same problems that the U.S. has been facing in regards to China. China has consistently struck deals with countries and organizations, only to renege on them.

Nearly a decade after China's entry into the World Trade Organization, many foreign companies say the warm reception they once received has turned frosty. While China can still be highly profitable, some question how long that will last as Beijing changes the rules to give a lift to its domestic companies, especially state-owned enterprises. A new government procurement program known as "indigenous innovation" features rules favoring local firms: It could block sales worth billions of dollars a year, says Joerg Wuttke, director of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Beijing has written strict standards for everything from cell phones to cars, often couching them in a way that gives an advantage to domestic producers. A recently revised patent law could force foreign companies to hand over key technologies to Chinese bureaucrats.

Their strategy was simple, and the rest of the world was naive in its thinking. China sucked in all these global companies to create offices in China and spur growth. Meanwhile these companies from all over the world, the innovators, start making profits and just as they think all is well, China comes in with their own companies that do the same - but as fabricators and duplicators rather than innovators.

What then? As the article mentions, there is the potential that China could force these foreign companies into handing over patents if they basically don't make China happy. These foreign companies can't do much in a communist country, where in the end - these Chinese bureaucrats have the last say.

A couple more points that the article makes on how China has policies that could force foreign businesses out of business:

Standards: China issues more than 10,000 product standards each year, some written to keep foreigners out of the market. Several Italian appliance manufacturers were shut out by rules requiring hotter-burning gas stoves. And tiremakers say the rules make it less profitable to sell in China.

Approvals: Bureaucratic foot-dragging on licensing for foreign banks and insurers restricts access and boosts Chinese rivals. One insurer says he can apply to open only one branch at a time and that it takes more than 18 months to get the green light. So some foreign companies have no more than a handful of branches.

As we are seeing with Google, who courageously took the stand against China, despite the potential for the money to be made in China - you either get in bed with their policies or you fall to the wayside and get kicked out.

What does this mean for Taiwan and the ECFA? If you feel like Ma is pushing the ECFA faster than his declining approval rating, well you aren't alone. It feels rushed, it feels sloppy, it feels like a gimmick to get Taiwan in bed with China. A trade agreement between two countries should not be rushed, especially in this context where Ma wishes to put all of Taiwan's eggs into the China basket.

Some Westerners believe all these troubles can be traced to China's negotiations to join the WTO. In the rush to gain access to the huge market, many corners were cut, and trade officials simply hoped Beijing would interpret the deal in a way outsiders would consider fair. "People were focused on the enormity of what was being accomplished just by bringing China into the WTO," says an executive with a Western bank in Shanghai, who says capital requirements and recalcitrant bureaucrats have restricted his company's expansion. "They thought they could take care of [the details] later."

Does the above sound eerily similar to what's occurring in Taiwan? Ma and his cronies are trying to fast-track ECFA just so that he can claim he got it done. Well, what exactly will it be? If the end result is a trade agreement with details as vague as Ma Ying-jeou's birth records, then shouldn't all of Taiwan be concerned?

We already know what China does in deals. It makes promises and then "interprets the deal" in a way that benefits themselves.

There's something that has always irked me. Call China for what it is - communist. Ever heard of the Chinese Communist Party? So what if they have a pseudo capitalist economy, you can be communist and love money. What you can't deny is they have a one-party dictatorship that does whatever the hell they want, how they want, to whoever they want. Let's not deceive ourselves into believing you can have fair free trade agreements with a country that doesn't give a damn about any rules or agreements, except their own.

In other news, just wanted to point out that the Taiwanese drive for the 2010 Census is not the only group of people pushing for their own "write-in." Despite what a lot of Debbie Downers are saying about how Taiwanese people are trying to create division, being trouble-makers, and being non-American, this article points out that Muslims, Sir-Lankans, and Indonesians among others are having their own census push also.

Anyways, April 1st was the day to get your census form in by, so for the most part the talk about the 2010 Census is over! That is, until we start seeing some of the statistics come out and see how much us Taiwanese were actually underrepresented.

China's Plot to Takeover Taiwan by 2012

A week or two ago, I saw this news popping up around the blogs about a new book by a Yuan Hongbing, a former Dean (of School of Criminal Law) at Beijing University, which reveals the steps that China is hoping to take in order to bring Taiwan under its control by 2012. Yes, 2012 as in within the next two years. Included is information classified as top-secret and confidential by the Chinese government. It should definitely be a worthy read, especially if you can read Chinese.

As of now I believe the book, English titled, "Taiwan Disaster," is currently available in Chinese - so English readers will have to wait. I was hoping to get a copy of this book as it certainly falls in line with what I believe will be happening. That is, that a significant change or move in the Taiwan Straits will occur sometime within the next 10 years - and keep in mind that I stated that when Ma Ying-jeou became Taiwan's president. So, the time frame I was looking at was between 2008 - 2018.

My reasons for such? The pace at which Ma Ying-jeou is bringing the two sides together is much too fast for there to be proper safeguards and special considerations in place for Taiwan to protect its sovereignty and democracy. Furthermore, the deteriorating global economic conditions will further put strain on China as well as Taiwan. What I fear the most is that with China's bubble economy and the possibility of Taiwan becoming a "One-China" economy, the potential for Taiwan to be taken down when China's bubble pops will be exponentially increased. At that point, it will be extremely hard for the Taiwanese side to make a stand when they are struggling economically. You may ask, what is the first step in China's evil plan? ECFA.

The book above will likely describe the ECFA is being one of those first steps, and that is why although Ma Ying-jeou continues to claim that this economic agreement is simply an economic agreement, nothing is ever that simple.

Taiwanese Are Not Ready For an ECFA

If you need any more evidence (as it continues to pile up) that a majority of Taiwanese do not want, or feel like an ECFA should not be rushed as it is, new poll numbers from Taiwan ThinkTank, reported on Taipei Times:

The survey showed that 62.5 percent of respondents agreed that “the December [5] election results showed that many people in Taiwan still have doubts about an EFCA plan and thus the [President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九)] administration should put off signing the deal with China and rather seek consensus within the country.”

Even among Pan-Blues, they are almost evenly split on this issue, showing a great rift within the Pan-Blues. What it shows is that there is no consensus on passing an ECFA.

On the question, among those who identified themselves as supporters of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)-led pan-blue camp, 46.3 percent agreed and 43.4 percent disagreed, while among those who said they have no party affiliation, 56.1 percent agreed and 26.8 percent disagreed.

President Ma needs to take a step back and re-evaluate. There is mounting evidence that the course that Ma is paving is not what Taiwanese are looking for. When you consider the numbers for "independents/non-party affiliates" that show a majority disapprove of ECFA and of Ma's performance thus far, adding in the obvious disapproval from the Pan-Green side, and finally the evenly split approval/disapproval of Ma by the Pan-Blues, it should be clear that Ma Ying-Jeou is not on the same page as the rest of Taiwan.

About 30 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the government’s performance since Ma took office, while 65.6 percent said they were dissatisfied.

Ma’s disapproval rating among non-party affiliated respondents was 66.9 percent, while his approval rating was 23.5 percent.

Among pro-pan blue camp supporters, his disapproval rating and approval rating were 44.6 percent and 54 percent respectively.

Asked whether they worried about the future of Taiwan under Ma’s leadership, 50.2 percent of non-party affiliated respondents said “Yes,” while 45.3 percent said “No.”

The result was nearly identical for all respondents — with 51.8 percent saying “Yes” and 46 percent saying “No.”

As the article mentions, it is likely Ma is doing this, all the while knowing the non-approval of ECFA and his actions, in order to put the China-Taiwan issue on the fast track. This track is likely being orchestrated by Beijing in order to "lock-down" Taiwan into a bind where it cannot be independent from China- whether it be economically, politically, socially.

Both sides would like improved relations with China, but what Ma is doing is simply giving away Taiwan without regard for Taiwan's sovereignty and self-dignity. Exactly what has Ma helped gain for Taiwan? I would say absolutely nothing. What he thinks he has done is promoted Taiwan in the international arena, but in fact he has promoted a "Chinese Taipei" that is continually being regarded as a Province of China.

In other news, a lot of chitter chatter about Tsai Ing-wen possibly running for positions in next year's county/city elections, in a run-up towards the 2012 presidential elections. In my very honest opinion, Tsai should focus on continuing to unify and solidify the DPP as the Chairwoman. A lot of other problems start to arise when you have the situation of the party chairwoman/chairman holding high public positions (as Ma Ying-jeou has done).

And you may say, well why not have her run, and put in a new chairman? The problem I see is, why mess with something that isn't broke? She has proven thus far to be putting the DPP on the right track for contention in next year and 2012 elections. Removing her and possibly putting back in some DPP "old guard" may setback the vision of a rebuilding DPP. What the party needs is fresh, young, politicians that can think outside of the box.

As far as 2012 presidential elections, I still believe Hsieh Chang-ting should be the DPP's best candidate. He has a great grassroots following going on via Plurk. Claudia Jean mentioned his Plurk-ing back in April when he first started.

How China Will Force Taiwan's Hand

As I've been mentioning, every time the ECFA is brought up, in posts such as this, Ma Ying Jeou's plan is to unite Taiwan and China gradually right underneath our very eyes by calling it a "non-political" agreement wrapped in something called the ECFA.

Why is it so hard for people to understand that when you open all your doors to Chinese investment, your enemy, that they will take advantage of the control they now have over your (Taiwan's) economy? My analogy that I've used before is that, when investing, we always talk about diversification and not "putting all your eggs in one basket." Well isn't that when the KMT and Ma Ying Jeou are doing right now? It's all well and good when China isn't upset with anything and continues to invest in Taiwan's economy, artificially propping it up; but when China starts steaming, they can just as easily deflate our economy and bend Taiwan into submission by cutting off their "stimulus." It reminds me of a Bible verse, Job 1:21, where Job was given everything by God, but in the same way, God had the power to take away everything.

This small example here is China using it's recent tourism investment in Taiwan to try and force Taiwan's hand into screening the films that have been entered into their film festival (small props to the WSJ for getting straight to the point with the opening line, but still doesn't do the job by going further and citing examples of where China has influenced things much more greater in scope and importance than just a film festival).

China appears to be using its growing economic clout in Taiwan to influence the island's free-wheeling cultural scene.

Why would they do this? Because it goes against their propaganda! We can already see that China is gaining clout over Taiwan, as the movie is still being shown in Kaohsiung, but not in the actual film festival- it is being shown at earlier days, outside of the film festival organization and event.

So here's another, "it's one thing for ________, but another thing to ________," for you to see my viewpoint.

It's one thing for Taiwan to push for economic agreements with China, but another thing to do so and ignore everyone else, especially our main allies- US and Japan.

The DPP has always been willing to negotiate terms and cross-strait agreements with China. But, tt has always been China who has been unwilling to come to the table during the 2000-2007 years. The DPP was ready to negotiate direct flights and the three-links, but it was China who insisted that they would not negotiate on anything as long as Taiwan's government continued to insist on their sovereignty and independence- something that Ma and "Taiwan's" government has caved into.