Taking a Breather from Politics, Sort of

As I haven't posted much stock news lately as I barely have enough time to blog on politics, let alone do my own due diligence on stock picks, I've decided to tie both stocks with politics in this one.

Remember the 20,000 TAIEX "promise"-turned-"just kidding" by Ma's presidential campaign staff/advisors/whoever it was that said it? Taipei Time's article covering yesterday's rally against Ma's performance, or lack of performance in the first 100 days provided a few quotes by some Taiwanese who were rallying [Side note, here's great coverage on the event by Michael Turton, citing participants > 100,000 compared to the most of the media reporting only tens of thousands showing]. This quote I want to note:

“In his presidential campaign, he said he would boost the TAIEX to 20,000 points ... After I lost NT$2 million [US$63,000] on it, he said he was just kidding — but I blame myself too for believing him,” Chen said.

Although my loss is not nearly as much, I also took the same road by picking up the equivalent ETF that tracks the TAIEX, ticker EWT, a week or so before Ma's inaguration.

Entrance Strategy: Buy on speculation of a magical economic boom once Ma steps into office.
Exit Strategy: "Buy on rumor, sell on news"

Long green bar indicates entering long position. (May 8th)

Result: Bought on the 8th of May and was at a high of 17.50 on the 19th. Planned to sell on news the next day, but the day the "news" came out the TAIEX went opposite of what I planned and ended up moving down a lot. Being not so smart, I held, and held and held. To this day, I'm still down 20% on EWT, and may exit soon for a loss.

My thinking behind it was, well the DPP lost, and at the very least, why not profit off of Ma's populartiy and assumed economic boom that he promised. Let's ride this sucker for what it's worth. As an investor that has read numerous investing books of all ranges, I know that what I decide is ultimately my own doing. This is what investors like to call, doing your own DD (due diligence) on ultimately selecting a stock to invest in. What I didn't do this time was my own DD. I took the words of Ma Ying-Jeou and ate them up, even though I didn't believe his words during the election campaigning. How stupid and naive of me. In my attempt to be more pragmatic in response to Ma Ying-Jeou winning, you could say I was just trying to "give him a shot." My dad, who bleeds green, was quick to point out how I was wrong on that trade and told me to sell it off. No matter the reason I gave him, he simply responded "bo kou lin" [不可能] [impossible].

Believing Ma, Ying-Jeou this time was "simply" a financially costly mistake, but continuing to believe in his empty promises may prove to be a mistake that cannot be afforded and resolved by simplying working harder to earn back that lost money; it may be a mistake that we will not realized what we had until we will have lost it.

Open Letter to DPP Supporters, by Tsai Ing-Wen

Here's the translated version of an open letter to the DPP supporters by the DPP Chairman, Tsai, Ing-wen. Also copied below:

By Tsai Ing-Wen 蔡英文

Wednesday, Aug 27, 2008, Page 8

There is a kind of sadness so painful it cannot be soothed, and a kind of disappointment so grave it cannot be overcome. I believe this is what Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters are going through.

Since the evening of Aug. 15, when former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and his wife, Wu Shu-jen (吳淑珍), withdrew from the party, many people in Taiwan have turned off their cellphones and avoided going online or watching TV because they do not know how to react to this incident. The truth is so unbearable that it has almost completely eroded the trust of the party’s supporters, who can only remain silent and hang their heads.

As a party, have we returned to square one? Have we been knocked down yet again?

Every time we struggle to pick ourselves up, we’re hit with another powerful blow. As a DPP supporter, it seems that one must always worry about the party and relinquish one’s right to happiness.

Past mistakes periodically return to haunt us at unexpected times. I know that many people would like to just turn around and leave, but the sad truth is, they do not know where to go. For a long time, the DPP has been the only choice in politics for these people, and yet the party has now made some unpardonable mistakes. All of a sudden, our supporters feel like they have fallen into the sea, unsupported and directionless.

Taiwan is in a diplomatic plight; not only is life tough for our citizens, but our national sovereignty is also being eroded. People are afraid that our beloved land can no longer uphold its dignity and beauty.

Unfortunately, at this crucial time, the DPP has once again disappointed them. To be honest, I do not know how to comfort them, but one thing I do want to say is that this is a democracy. Sometimes a democratic system can be ruthless: All the actions of the previous administration will be publicly scrutinized following the transition of power.

Through its mistakes, the DPP has demonstrated that Taiwan’s democracy is gradually heading toward maturation and completion. To our supporters, this is indeed a painful process, but I must reiterate that this is democracy. No one in a democracy can enjoy privileges. When a president steps down from office, he too must assume responsibility for his mistakes.

I had extremely mixed feelings when Chen publicly admitted his mistakes and then withdrew from the party. He will have to face the judicial system, and I hope that he can set a good example for Taiwan’s democracy during the investigations.

I also hope that the judiciary will respect his human rights by not violating the principle that “investigations shall not be public” and refraining from publicizing unverified information. This is an opportunity for the entire nation to learn about democracy and self-discipline, and everyone should remain calm and rational.

It cannot be denied that Chen put considerable effort into bringing the DPP to its height, by which we were all touched and even moved to tears. Now that he has left the party, Chen’s legacy has become a part of the party’s history and memory. I would like to call on all DPP supporters to unite closely and fearlessly at this time of crisis, and to face this collective history and memory together.

Politics cannot return to nothing and start afresh; it is continual. It is impossible to completely cut off and wipe away old ties. As DPP chairwoman, I have the responsibility to shoulder everything that the party has been through in the past eight years. I represent not only the current DPP, but also the past DPP.

I inherited the party’s history without any reservation, and, like everyone, I too feel a lot of pain from the opened wounds. However, no matter how excruciating it is, this is the real DPP.

Only by recognizing this truth and taking on these challenges can we resurrect the party. Therefore, I will definitely not shun the responsibility, nor turn a blind eye to our past mistakes. Instead, I will contemplate these mistakes more attentively than anyone else.

I am aware of my responsibilities, and I will spare no effort in helping the party rise from its wretched plight.



Tsai Ing-wen is the chairwoman of the Democratic Progressive Party.

TRANSLATED BY TED YANG

Thoughtful, sincere, and honest. Probably couldn't have stated it better, this is the tough road of democracy. Ideally, we vote candidates into power because of our belief that they will carry out the policies that we believe to be in the best interest for the country, and probably for ourselves. Not because of the individual. Whether the candidate is white, black, Taiwanese, Cantonese, we support the candidate because of their platform. It is the policies and ideals we support. Therefore, to abandon Chen, Shui-bian is completely fair, but to abandon the DPP, well that's just taking the easy way out.

Taiwan Won 4 Medals, What?

So after 16 days or so, I'm finally back to being Taiwanese again. For a while there I was too ashamed to even say I was rooting for Chinese Taipei, mainly because I'm not Chinese, nor is my family from Taipei. But, in my effort to inform people, I decided to let a lot of my friends know how many medals "our" team had. To sort of my surprise, but not really, about half of my friends had no idea what Chinese Taipei was, nor knew why Taiwan was being called Chinese Taipei. To keep it brief in an attempt to not lose their interest, I just said that China has bullied the IOC and a load of other countries into disallowing any sort of "Taiwan"-ness on the international stage. Not being allowed to use our name, nor our national flag, nor our national anthem, nor any sort of emblem or thing representing our country was demanded by China and Co.

Anyways, glad the Communism Party is over, aka the Beijing Olympics.

Bridging the Divide - Xiamen & Jinmen

As if there weren't anymore possible connections possible between China and Taiwan to signify the continual march towards unification that the KMT Chairman, Wu Poh-Hsiung, has made very transparent in what he is attempting to accomplish; it appears that plans are already in the works or already in place for constructing a bridge to connect and outlier outpost/island of Taiwan with China. That is, Jinmen Island with China.

China's own Wu Poh-Hsiung said on Monday:

Jinmen has shifted its focus from a war front to becoming the place that connects China and Taiwan.

Oh is that so? And what of the other end of that bridge in Xiamen? Sure if a bridge is built, of course there is a physical connection. But, I hardly think Wu was simply referring to a physical connection, rather a symbolic connection. The focus of Xiamen as a launching stage for a military invasion of Taiwan has not shifted, and is the place that one can point to where there is no 'thawing of relations,' nor 'peace' between China and Taiwan despite what the the trifecta of CCP, KMT, and the media would like you to think.

"633" Pledge: Downgraded to "Not Likely"

Latest figures here and some more here with some extra info regarding GDP, from the Taiwan government, indicate it is slipping again; and revised estimates for the year 2008 down again to 4.3%. Unemployment at 11-month high rising to 4.06% (attributed to freshly graduated students).

A reminder at what the 633 promise is:

- 6% GDP Growth Annually
- 3% Unemployment rate by 2012
- $30,000 Per Capita Income by 2012

As I posted on 7/22/08, the GDP continues to be adjusted downward, citing the global economy as the reason. Don't want to beat this to death, but why wasn't the global economy cited for a so-called "poor" economy during Chen's last couple years? Instead, blame Chen [For readers, I am not trying to pump up Chen still, this is just to show how the media and the KMT made it convenient to blame the president instead of citing the actual reasons when it favored them].

Analyst Rating: Richard downgrades the "633" pledges to "not likely" from "don't look to well."

The End of the Line?

Quite a few articles appearing these past few days quoting many ex-DPP supporters that they have now withdrawn their party membership or have decided to not support the DPP anymore, and therefore support the KMT in all likelihood. As this article shows, an image of a Kaohsiung resident burning his "Vote for Chen" shirts, and instead, making sacrifices to Chiang Kai-shek.

Is this really the end of the line for the DPP? It seems like this was the last nail in the coffin for the DPP as far as elections in 2012 go- that is, if Taiwan even gets a 2012 election. At this rate, it seems like Taiwan will be swallowed up by 2010-2011 by China. The new DPP chairman, Tsai, Ing-wen, was promoted as a new change for the party- but it seems like further change will be necessary in order to completely seperate the DPP from the scandals of Chen, Shui-bian.

It took quite a long time and many sacrifices by brave people to bring about this democracy and two-party system, but now it seems like it's one and a half party system with the half quickly becoming minute.

It really will be up to the people of Taiwan to recognize and defend Taiwan's democracy. No party, nor no leader (as we have seen), will be able to successfully defend Taiwan's sovereignty and democracy by themselves. It was the people who paved the way for today's Taiwan, and it must be the people who once again safeguard the sovereignty of Taiwan.

Devastating Reversals

As many have probably heard, Chen, Shiu-bian has acknowledged his wrong-doing in money laundering. It is indeed a sad day for Taiwan, especially for the DPP. We all knew Taiwan politics was corrupt, but to have your president directly involved in a money-laundering scandal like this after "vehemently" denying it previously, is really heartbreaking for the morale of the DPP party. First and foremost it is A-bian's fault for doing so, but is there no accounting practices inside the administration? Anyways, while Chen, Shui-bian has declared that he and his wife will be leaving the party, the negative effects have already taken place and any distancing now is just a formality.

Nevertheless, you cannot deny what A-bian has done for Taiwan in these last 8 years, although the whole time he was "profting" greatly from his presidential position. It really is too bad that A-bian is going to go out like this, because for the most part, we all thought that the A-bian's presidency would be redeemed after a poor showing by Ma over these next 4 years. ("You never know what you have until you lose it"). But, in the end it looks like A-bian will be remembered for cheating the public and DPP supporters out of tens of millions of dollars.

In other news, Taiwan is getting "unification" pandas from China. A symbol of China's impending threat of destabilizing status quo and autonomy for Taiwan. Interestingly enough, these two stories mark the fall of A-bian, and the coming of pandas, of which A-bian refused to accept during his term.

Oh yeah, seemingly well timed, the Ma has decided to forgo full membership in the U.N. and settle for the sub-organizations of the U.N. Which would have caused a nice uproar from some people, but due to the timing, once again the bad news from their mouths have been swept under the carpet.

Better days ahead, we hope.