Remember the 20,000 TAIEX "promise"-turned-"just kidding" by Ma's presidential campaign staff/advisors/whoever it was that said it? Taipei Time's article covering yesterday's rally against Ma's performance, or lack of performance in the first 100 days provided a few quotes by some Taiwanese who were rallying [Side note, here's great coverage on the event by Michael Turton, citing participants > 100,000 compared to the most of the media reporting only tens of thousands showing]. This quote I want to note:
“In his presidential campaign, he said he would boost the TAIEX to 20,000 points ... After I lost NT$2 million [US$63,000] on it, he said he was just kidding — but I blame myself too for believing him,” Chen said.
Although my loss is not nearly as much, I also took the same road by picking up the equivalent ETF that tracks the TAIEX, ticker EWT, a week or so before Ma's inaguration.
Entrance Strategy: Buy on speculation of a magical economic boom once Ma steps into office.
Exit Strategy: "Buy on rumor, sell on news"
Result: Bought on the 8th of May and was at a high of 17.50 on the 19th. Planned to sell on news the next day, but the day the "news" came out the TAIEX went opposite of what I planned and ended up moving down a lot. Being not so smart, I held, and held and held. To this day, I'm still down 20% on EWT, and may exit soon for a loss.
My thinking behind it was, well the DPP lost, and at the very least, why not profit off of Ma's populartiy and assumed economic boom that he promised. Let's ride this sucker for what it's worth. As an investor that has read numerous investing books of all ranges, I know that what I decide is ultimately my own doing. This is what investors like to call, doing your own DD (due diligence) on ultimately selecting a stock to invest in. What I didn't do this time was my own DD. I took the words of Ma Ying-Jeou and ate them up, even though I didn't believe his words during the election campaigning. How stupid and naive of me. In my attempt to be more pragmatic in response to Ma Ying-Jeou winning, you could say I was just trying to "give him a shot." My dad, who bleeds green, was quick to point out how I was wrong on that trade and told me to sell it off. No matter the reason I gave him, he simply responded "bo kou lin" [不可能] [impossible].
Believing Ma, Ying-Jeou this time was "simply" a financially costly mistake, but continuing to believe in his empty promises may prove to be a mistake that cannot be afforded and resolved by simplying working harder to earn back that lost money; it may be a mistake that we will not realized what we had until we will have lost it.